tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3891434218564545511.post887025137404782302..comments2024-03-28T13:23:50.623-05:00Comments on Alexander Pruss's Blog: Catastrophic decisionsAlexander R Prusshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05989277655934827117noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3891434218564545511.post-46073062372284652272020-08-21T15:59:37.660-05:002020-08-21T15:59:37.660-05:00Ian:
Even if we ignore tiny probabilities, 1/1000...Ian:<br /><br />Even if we ignore tiny probabilities, 1/1000 is not tiny enough to ignore.Alexander R Prusshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05989277655934827117noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3891434218564545511.post-32649341568180652522020-08-20T21:58:54.144-05:002020-08-20T21:58:54.144-05:00Good thinking, Alexander!! You have raised excell...Good thinking, Alexander!! You have raised excellent questions and not asked too much of your generalized conclusion.MJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01947986837804665714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3891434218564545511.post-19568420314218089052020-07-18T21:28:04.112-05:002020-07-18T21:28:04.112-05:00When is EU maximisation reasonable? When is it rea...When is EU maximisation reasonable? When is it reasonable to ignore small probabilities? Should one-off choices (for which we may not expect the expectation, or anything like it) be treated differently from ones that are likely to be repeated? Issues like this have often worried me, but I have only half-baked thoughts.<br /><br />I came across this (rather discursive) paper. Bradley Monton: How to Avoid Maximizing Expected Utility.<br /><br />https://quod.lib.umich.edu/cgi/p/pod/dod-idx/how-to-avoid-maximizing-expected-utility.pdf?c=phimp;idno=3521354.0019.018;format=pdf<br /><br />He defends ignoring probabilities below some threshold.IanShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00111583711680190175noreply@blogger.com