Alexander Pruss's Blog

Nicod’s Principle says that the claim that all F s are G s is confirmed by each instance. Here’s yet another counterexample. Consider the c...

One part of the problem of anomaly is this. If a well-established scientific theory seems to predict something contrary to what we observe, ...

Suppose I played a lottery that involved my picking ten digits. The digits I picked are: 7509994361. At this point, my probability that I wo...

Suppose I am considering two different hypotheses, and I am sure exactly one of them is true. On H , the coin I toss is chancy, with differe...

Let a 0 =1/2. Let a n =1−(1− a n −1 ) 2 . Thus, approximately, the first couple of values are: a 0 =0.5, a 1 =0.75, a 2 =0.938, a 3 =0.9...

Suppose the police have found one person involved in the JFK assassination. Then simplicity grounds may give us significant reason to th...

Let me preface by saying I am not a political philosopher, and this may be off-base. Start by granting this claim for the sake of the argum...

Fitelson proposes the following principle: "If E constitutes conclusive evidence for H 1 , but E constitutes less than con...

Let C K ( E , H ) be the degree of confirmation that E lends H given background K . Here is a derivation of the likelihood-ratio measure...