I have long found promises to punish puzzling. The problem with such promises is that normally a promisee can release the promisor from a promise. But what’s the point of me promising you a punishment should you do something if you can just release me from the promise when the time for the promise comes?
Scanlon’s account of promising also faces another problem with promises to punish: Scanlon requires that the promisee wants to be assured of the promised action. But of course in many cases of promising a punishment, the promisee does not want any such assurance! (There are some cases when they do, say when they recognize the benefit of being held to account for something.)
Additionally, it seems that breaking a promise is wrong because of the harm to the promisee. But it is commonly thought that escaping punishment is not a harm. Here I am inclined to follow Boethius, however, who insisted that a just punishment is intrinsically good for one. But suppose we follow common sense rather than Boethius, or perhaps we are dealing with a case where the norm whose violation gains a punishment is not a moral norm.
Then there is still something interesting we can say. Let’s say that I promise you a punishment for some action, and you perform that action, but I omit the punishment. Even if the omission of the punishment is not a harm, you might feel a resentment that in your choice of activity you had to take my prospective punishment into account but I wasn’t going to follow-through on the punishment. There is something unfair about this. Perhaps the point is clearest in a case like this: I promise you a punishment each time you do something. Several times you hold yourself back due to fear of punishment, and then finally you do it, and out of laziness I don’t to punish. You then feel: “Why did I even bother to keep to the rule earlier?”
But note that even in a case like this, it seems better to locate the harm in my making of the promise if I wasn’t going to keep it than in the non-keeping of it. So, let’s suppose that the Boethius line of thought doesn’t apply, and suppose that I am now deciding whether to perform the onerous task of punishing you as per promise. What moral reason do I have to punish you now in light of the promise? Well, there are considerations having to do with future cases: if I don’t do it now, you won’t trust me in the future, etc. But we can suppose all such future considerations are irrelevant—maybe this is the last hour of my life. So why is it that I should punish you?
I think there are two mutually-compatible stories one can tell. One story is an Aristotelian one: it’s simply bad for my will that I not keep my promise. The other story is a trust-based one: I solicited your trust, and even if you want me to break trust with you, I have no right to betray your trust. Having one’s trust betrayed is in itself a harm, regardless of whether one is trusting someone to do something that is otherwise good or bad for one.
It's interesting to note that the Kantian account works well for promises to punish. If you renege on your promise out of laziness, (a) such reneging can't be universalized, and (b) you are treating the other person as a machine for generation of behavior.
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