Saturday night, at the Central Texas Astronomical Society's dark site, M 33 looked to me both like a spiral galaxy and like it was created by God. Therefore, probably, it was a spiral galaxy and created by God. I think this is a perfectly good argument, and it would be a nightmare to try to discredit the "spiral galaxy" part of the argument without discrediting the "created by God" part, or vice versa.
That it might not look to everyone like it was created by God is no more impressive than the fact that it might not look to everyone like a spiral galaxy (it is well known that some observers see more than others, under the same conditions).
I kind of like that argument. Isn't the worry that there isn't any such phenomenal appearence corresponding to "appearing to be caused by God", while there is definitely a phenomenal appearence corresponding to "appearing to be spiral". Causes are inferred, not perceived; spirals are perceived.
ReplyDeleteI don't know about that. To an expert, a painting can appear to be by Picasso.
ReplyDeleteOr an errorless forgery, you can't tell by looking.
ReplyDeleteSure, an errorless forgery looks just like a Picasso. Likewise, a cloud of just the right size, shape and illumination looks just like a spiral galaxy.
ReplyDeleteBut a cloud of dust you can tell by looking, look harder. You can't do that with a perfect forgery, no matter how hard you look.
ReplyDeleteSuppose it's practically impossible to look harder. I don't think there is an epistemological difference between what is practically uncheckable and what is in principle uncheckable (pace the positivists).
ReplyDeleteDo you really think this is a "perfectly good" argument? No doubt you think it meets the standard of being a good enough argument to convince you, but don't you think arguments can be much better than that?
ReplyDeleteWhat would you say are the weaknesses of this argument, if you think there are any?
Well, it's a perfectly good probabilistic argument. I.e., it succeeds in showing that, absent other data, it is likely that there is a God and that M33 is a spiral galaxy. But perceptual arguments like this are defeasible, for instance if there is strong independent evidence against the conclusion.
ReplyDeleteSo "it appears to me as if ____" is perfectly good as an argument to demonstrate "probably ____"?
ReplyDeleteDo you think that "perfectly good" arguments are good enough to be published in philosophical journals?