Alexander Pruss's Blog

Consider a choice between two wagers on a fair coin: W 1 : on heads, you get $1 if you are perfectly rational and $3 if you are not W 2 :...

Warning: I worry there may be something wrong in the reasoning below. Causal Decision Theory (CDT) and Epistemic Decision Theory (EDT) tend...

Suppose there are two opaque boxes, A and B, of which I can choose one. A nearly perfect predictor of my actions put $100 in the box that th...

Suppose I am choosing between options A and B . Evidential decision theory tells me to calculate the expected utility E ( U | A ) given th...

The causal probability of an event B on an event A is c P A ( B )=∑ K P ( K ) P ( B | A K ), where the K s are a partition based...