Assume that in fact all ravens are black. Suppose you are sequentiallly observing ravens, and noting each one to be black. After observing n ravens, your evidence that the next raven is black will typically be significantly better than the evidence that all ravens are black. Now at some point, say after observing nA ravens, your evidence that all ravens are black will rise to the level of knowledge. Thus, plausibly, at an earlier point in the sequence, call it nN, your evidence that the next raven is black will have risen to the level of knowledge.
Suppose now you have observed nA − 1 ravens, and you have been handed a raven in an opaque box, which you are certain you are about to open. Since nN < nA, at this point you have reached nN. Hence:
You do not know that all ravens are black.
You do know that the next raven is black.
You know that when you observe the next raven, you will have sufficient evidence for knowledge that all ravens are black.
But note that while you know you will have sufficient evidence for knowledge that all ravens are black, you don’t know that you will know that all ravens are black. There is nothing deeply surprising about this distinction. We might well say about someone who has been subjected to misleading or Gettiered evidence that they have sufficient evidence to know something but nonetheless they don’t know, though the case at hand feels different.
One interesting thing about this case, as I read it, is that it contradicts the thesis that K = E, i.e., that knowledge is evidence. For if knowledge is evidence, and you know that the next raven is black, then you already have the evidence you will gain by observing the next raven, and hence you are already in the position to know that all ravens are black.
Another interesting thing is that it shows that you can know something and nonetheless it be rational for you to investigate it. For you know that the next raven is black, but it’s worth investigating further, since it is only upon observation that your knowledge of the next raven’s blackness turns into the kind of evidence that gives you knowledge that all ravens are black.
All this might make one think that I have misconstrued the epistemic facts, and it is false that there can be a point nN prior to nA at which you know that the next raven is black. Here is one way to back up my intuition that there can be such a point nN < nA. Suppose that we know for sure we live in a world where the color distributions of birds are always uncorrelated between the males and the females of the species, so that information about the color of members of one sex are irrelevant to the color of members of the other sex. Also assume that you know for sure that ravens have equal numbers of each sex, that you are observing ravens in an alternative female-male-female-male-… sequence, and that your priors for the color distributions of the two sexes of ravens are the same. Then if pM and pF are the probabilities that all male ravens are black and all female ravens are black, and pA is the probability that all ravens are black, then at any given point in the observation sequence pA = pMpF. Let nM and nF be the points in the sequence where you know that all male and all female ravens are black, respectively. Then, nM < nA and nF < nA, since pA = pMpF is significantly smaller than either pM and pF at all points in the sequence except when we’ve observed all the ravens of one sex, and since pM and pF rise fairly gradually as we go through the sequence. Thus, at the point nA − 1, we will have already reached knowledge that all the male ravens are black and the knowledge that all the female ravens are black. In particular, then, we know that the next raven is black, since if nA is even, the nAth raven is male and we know all male ravens are black, and if nA is odd, then the nAth raven is female, and we know that all female ravens are black.