Assume Molinism.
Suppose T is a set of
character traits that makes one be equipoised between freely taking and
refusing a $5000 bribe for a city contract. Let C1, C2, ...
be distinct and highly specific possible circumstances of Curley being
offered such a bribe, differing in morally unimportant ways that are not
very relevant to Curley’s character. Perhaps he is offered the bribe in
an Italian restaurant, or in a Thai restaurant, or while walking in the
park. Perhaps the bribe is being offered by a man or by a woman. Maybe
it’s in the morning or the evening. Etc.
Consider the counterfactual of free will:
- Qi:
Were Curley to have T and be
offered a $5000 bribe for a city contract in Ci, he would
accept the bribe.
Intuitively, P(Qi) ≈ 1/2
for any i. Let’s accept that
intuition. But now here is an interesting question: What kinds of
statistical correlation is there between Q1, Q2, ...?
The intuition behind van Inwagen’s re-run thought experiment says
that if Curley were offered a sequence of exactly similar bribes, with
memory erased in between, then Curley’s acceptance/rejection decisions
would behave like an independent sequence of random variables. That
intuition suggests that Q1, Q2, ...
are also statistically independent.
On the other hand, one might have the conflicting intuition that
Qi and
Qj are
more correlated when the circumstances Ci and Cj are more
similar.
On the third hand, one might think that although each of Qi has
probability around 1/2, the
probabilities of conjunctions of the Qi are
undefined, and hence it makes no sense to talk about their
correlations.
These seem to me to be the three most plausible views on the
correlation question. Call these the Independence, Similarity, and
Undefined views.
On Molinism plus Independence, God has a vast amount of providential
power. He is nearly certain to be able to get Curley (or any other free
agent) to freely do anything he wants, simply by choosing minor and
unimportant features of circumstances. Given independence, it is
extremely unlikely that all the Qi have the same
truth value. Thus, God can just choose the circumstances to get the
truth value he wants—to get Curley to accept or to get Curley to reject
the bribe. In particular, on Independence, free will does not do much to
help the theist.
On the Similarity view, there are some more serious constraints of
God’s providential power. However, I think there is another problem with
the Similarity view. On Similarity, there is presumably some complicated
function from the degree of similarity between circumstances to the
degree of correlation (say, measured by covariance) between the truth
values of the corresponding counterfactuals. Where does this function
come from? Normally correlations between events are explained by laws of
nature. But counterfactuals of free will are prior to laws of nature. I
suppose the correlation function would have to be something necessary.
But it does seem mysterious.
I think that if I were a Molinist, I would find the Undefined view
somewhat appealing. The version of it that seems most plausible would be
that P(QiQj)
is not defined as a number, but can be represented as the interval [max(0,P(Qi)+P(Qj)−1),min(P(Qi),P(Qj))].
But I still find it a bit odd that P(Qi)
and P(Qj)
are defined but P(QiQj)
is not. Nonetheless, this seems possible.