It’s easy to generate probabilistic paradoxes in a universe (or multiverse) with infinitely many people (e.g., if infinitely many people roll a die, equal numbers of people get 1 as get more than 1, so why think it’s more likely to get more than 1?). But what about a very large but finite universe? I used to think: “The only relevant difference is between finite and infinite. Really big but finite—no problem.” Now I am not so sure.
Paul Heyl measured the gravitational constant G as 6.670 × 10−11 m3 kg−1 s−2, and denote the latter quantity by G0. Consider two theories:
H1: The gravitational constant is between 6.665 × 10−11 m3 kg−1 s−2 and 6.675 × 10−11 m3 kg−1 s−2.
H2: The gravitational constant is between 7.676 × 10−11 m3 kg−1 s−2 and 7.686 × 10−11 m3 kg−1 s−2.
It seems obvious that:
- Heyl’s measurement strongly supports H1 but does not completely rule out H2.
But let’s think this through. Suppose Heyl’s evidence is the proposition E which he would express as “I measured G to be G0.” But, very plausibly, it is an essential property of a human being that they exist in a world with such-and-such a gravitational constant. One way of getting to this conclusion is to say that the forces of gravity are part of our causal history, and then to apply the essentiality of origins. Another is to say that we couldn’t have been made of completely different matter, but the forces exerted by the matter in our bodies are an essential property of that matter.
Given this essentiality of gravitational constant assumption, it follows that at least one of H1 and H2 is incompatible with Heyl’s existence. Now, to get (1), we need prior probabilities on which P(H1|E) > P(H2|E) > 0. Such prior probabilities will assign a non-zero value to H1E and to H2E. But at least one of these two claims is impossible since E entails Heyl’s existence, and a probability assignment that assigns a non-zero value to something impossible is screwed up, and we should be quite suspicious of what we get from it.
We might try to avoid this by using self-locating evidence. But my colleague Yoaav Isaacs has this great paper that gives a pretty strong argument that there isn’t a good way to working with self-locating evidence. So suppose we put this option aside.
Or we might make a distinction between logical impossibility and metaphysical impossibility. I find that suspicious, too.
So, what’s left? Well, here’s one remaining suggestion. Heyl’s evidence is equivalent to the proposition that Heyl measured G to be G0, a proposition that rigidly refers to Heyl, and hence won’t be compatible with both H1 and H2. But we can weaken Heyl’s evidence to something that is compatible with H1 and H2, something purely qualitative, like:
- EQ: A physicist named “Paul Heyl”, who married someone named “Lucy Daugherty”, and who …, measured G to be G0.
Here, “…” is all the purely qualitative stuff we know about Paul Heyl, so that EQ is compatible with both H1 and H2.
But now here is a problem. Suppose we live in a vast but finite universe with, say, 101010 people. In such a universe, we might well expect large numbers of people named “Paul Heyl” who satisfy all the conditions in EQ, including the measurement of G to be G0, even if in fact G is in the range indicated in H1 (measurement error!). Thus, P(EQ|H2) is close to 1 as is P(EQ|H1). Granted, we do have P(EQ|H1) > P(EQ|H2) > 0. But because the two probabilities are so close to each other, the support EQ gives to H1 over H2 is very slight, and hence we no longer have (1).
It follows that unless we can find some other way of solving the problem that the essentiality of the laws of nature to humans poses for Bayesian reasoning, a fair amount of fundamental physics research would be undercut by a large enough—even if finite—universe.
Of course, maybe we can find some other way of solving it. But maybe we can’t. And if we can’t, then the EQ solution might be our best bet—and it’ll work just fine in a universe that isn’t too vast.