Classical mereology and causal regresses

Assume classical mereology with arbitrary fusions.

Further assume two plausible theses:

1. If each of the ys is caused by at least one of the xs and there is no overlap between any of the xs and ys, then the fusion of the ys is caused by a part of the fusion of the xs.

2. It is impossible to have non-overlapping objects A and B such that A is caused by a part of B and B is caused by a part of A.

It follows that:

3. It is impossible to have an infinite causal regress of non-overlapping items.

For suppose that A₀ is caused by A₋₁ which is caused by A₋₂ and so on. Let E be a fusion of the even-numbered items and O a fusion of the odd-numbered ones. Then by (1), a part of E causes O and a part of O causes E, contrary to (2).

This is rather like explanatory circularity arguments I have used in the past against regresses, but it uses causation and mereology instead.

Another infinite dice game

Suppose infinitely many people independently roll a fair die. Before they get to see the result, they will need to guess whether the die shows a six or a non-six. If they guess right, they get a cookie; if they guess wrong, an electric shock.

But here’s another part of the story. An angel has considered all possible sequences of fair die outcomes for the infinitely many people, and defined the equivalence relation ∼ on the sequences, where α ∼ β if and only if the sequences α and β differ in at most finitely many places. Furthermore, the angel has chosen a set T that contains exactly one sequence from each ∼-equivalence class. Before anybody guesses, the angel is going to look at everyone’s dice and announce the unique member α of T that is ∼-equivalent to the actual die rolls.

Consider two strategies:

1. Ignore what the angel says and say “not six” regardless.

2. Guess in accordance with the unique member α: if α says you have six, you guess “six”, and otherwise you guess “not six”.

When the two strategies disagree for a person, there is a good argument that the person should go with strategy (1). For without the information from the angel, the person should go with strategy (1). But the information received from the angel is irrelevant to each individual x, because which ∼-equivalence class the actual sequence of rolls falls into depends only on rolls other than x’s. And following strategy (1) in repeats of the game results in one getting a cookie five out of six times on average.

However, if everyone follows strategy (2), then it is guaranteed that in each game only finitely many people get a shock and everyone else gets a cookie.

This seems to be an interesting case where self-interest gets everyone to go for strategy (1), but everyone going for strategy (2) is better for the common good. There are, of course, many such games, such as Tragedy of the Commons or the Prisoner’s Dilemma, but what is weird about the present game is that there is no interaction between the players—each one’s payoff is independent of what any of the other players do.

(This is a variant of a game in my infinity book, but the difference is that the game in my infinity book only worked assuming a certain rare event happened, while this game works more generally.)

My official line on games like this is that their paradoxicality is evidence for causal finitism, which thesis rules them out.

A dialectically failing argument for truth-value realism about arithmetic

Truth-value realism about (first-order) arithmetic is the thesis that for any first-order logic sentence in the language of arithmetic (i.e., using the successor, addition and multiplication functions along with the name “0”), there is a definite truth value, either true or false.

Now, consider the following argument for truth-value realism about arithmetic.

Assume eternalism.

Imagine a world with an infinite space and infinite future that contains an ever-growing list of mathematical equations.

At the beginning the equation “S0 = 1” is written down.

Then a machine begins an endless cycle of alternation between three operations:

1. Scan the equations already written down, and find the smallest numeral n that occurs in the list but does not occur in an equation that starts with “Sn=”. Then add to the bottom of the list the equation “Sn = m” where m is the numeral coming after n.

2. Scan the equations already written down, and find the smallest pair of numerals n, m (ordered lexicographically) such that n + m= does not occur in the list of equations, and write at the bottom of the list n + m = r where r is the numeral representing the sum of the numbers represented by n and m.

3. Scan the equations already written down, and find the smallest pair of numerals n, m (ordered lexicographically) such that n ⋅ m= does not occur in the list of equations, and write at the bottom of the list n ⋅ m = r where r is the numeral representing the product of the numbers represented by n and m.

No other numerals are ever written down in that world, and no equations disappear from the list. We assume that all tokens of a given numeral count as “alike” and no tokens of different numerals count as “alike”. The procedure of producing numerals representing sums and products of numbers represented by numerals can be given entirely mechanically.

Now, if ϕ is an arithmetical sentence, then we say that ϕ is true provided that ϕ would be true in a world such as above under the following interpretation of its basic terms:

4. The domain consists of the first occuring token numerals in the giant list of equations (i.e., a token numeral in the list of equations is in the domain if and only if no token alike to it occurs earlier in the list).

5. 0 refers to the zero token in the first equation.

6. The value of Sn for a token numeral n is the token in the domain alike to a token appearing after the equal sign in an equation whose left-side consists of a capital S token followed by a token alike to n.

7. The value of n + m for token numerals n and m is the token in the domain alike to a token appearing after the equal sign in an equation whose left-side consists of a token alike to n follow by a plus sign followed by a token alike to m.

8. The value of n ⋅ m for token numerals n and m is the token in the domain alike to a token appearing after the equal sign in an equation whose left-side consists of a token alike to n follow by a multiplication sign followed by a token alike to m.

It seems we now have well-defined truth-value assignments to all arithmetical sentences. Moreover, it is plausible that these assignments would be correct and hence truth-value realism about arithmetic is correct.

But there is one serious hole in this argument. What if there are two worlds w₁ and w₂ with lists of equations both of which satisfy my description above, but ϕ gets different truth values in them? This is difficult to wrap one’s mind around initially, but we can make the worry concrete as follows: What if the two worlds have different lengths of “infinite future”, so that if we were to line up the lists of equations of the two worlds, with equal heights of lines, one of the two lists would have an equation that comes after all of the equations of the other list?

This may seem an absurd worry. But it’s not. What I’ve just said in the worry can be coherently mathematically described (just take a non-standard model of arithmetic and imagine the equations in one of the lists to have the order-type of that model).

We need a way to rule out such a hypothesis. To do that, what we need is a privileged notion of the finite, so that we can specify that for each equation in the list there is only a finite number of equations before it, or (equivalently) that for each operation of the list-making machine, there are only finitely many operations.

I think there are two options here: a notion of the finite based on the arrangement of stuff in our universe and a metaphysically privileged notion of the finite.

There are multiple ways to try to realize the first option. For instance, we might say that a finite sequence is one that would fit in the future of our universe with each item in the sequence being realized on a different day and there being a day that comes after the whole sequence. (Or, less attractively, we can try to use space.) One may worry about having to make an empirical presupposition that the universe’s future is infinite, but perhaps this isn’t so bad (and we have some scientific reason for it). Or, more directly in the context of the above argument, we can suppose that the list-making machine functions in a universe whose future is like our world’s future.

But I think this option only yields what one might call “realism lite”. For all we’ve said, there is a possible world whose future days have the order structure of a non-standard model of arithmetic, and the analogue to the mathematicians of our world who employed the same approach as we just did to fix the notion of the finite end up with a different, “more expansive”, notion of the finite, and a different arithmetic. Thus while we can rigidify our universe’s “finite” and or the length of our universe’s future and use that to fix arithmetic, there is nothing privileged about this, except in relation to the actual world. We have simply rigidified the contingent, and the necessity of arithmetical truths is just like the necessity of “Water is H₂O”—the denial is metaphysically impossible but conceivable in the two-dimensionalist sematics sense. And I feel that better than this is needed for arithmetic.

So, I think we need a metaphysically privileged notion of the finite to make the above argument go. Various finitism provide such a notion. For instance, finitism simpliciter (necessarily, there are only finitely many things), finitism about the past (necessarily, there are always only finitely many past items), causal finitism (necessarily, each item has only finitely many causal antecedents), and compositional finitism (necessarily, each item has at most finitely many parts). Finitism simpliciter, while giving a notion of the finite, doesn’t work with my argument, since my argument requires eternalism, an infinite future and an ever-growing list. Finitism about the past is an option, though it has the disadvantage that it requires time to be discrete.

I think causal finitism is the best option for what to plug into the argument, but even if it’s the best option, it’s not a dialectically good option, because it’s more controversial than the truth-value realism about arithmetic that is the conclusion of the argument.

Alas.

Probabilities of regresses of chickens

Suppose we have a backwards-infinite sequence of asexually reproducing chickens, ..., c₋₃, c₋₂, c₋₁, c₀ with c_n having a chance p_n of producing a new chicken c_n + 1 (chicken c₀ may or may not have succeeded; the earlier ones have succeeded). Suppose that the p_n are all strictly between 0 and 1, and that the infinite product p₋₁p₋₂p₋₃... equals some number p strictly between 0 and 1.

Intuitively, we should be surprised that chicken c₀ exists if p is low and not surprised if p is high. If we have observed c₀ and are considering theories as to what the chances p_n are, other things being equal, we should prefer the theories on which the product p is high to ones on which it’s low.

But what exactly does p measure? It seems to be some kind of a chance of us getting c₀. But it doesn’t measure the unconditional probability of getting an infinite sequence of chickens leading up to c₀. For that is very tiny indeed, since it is extremely unlikely that the world would contain chickens at all. It seems to be a kind of conditional probability. Let q_n be the proposition that chicken c_n exists. Then P(q₀∣q_n) = p₀p₋₁p₋₂...p_n, and so p is the limit of the conditional probabilities P(q₀∣q_n). It is plausible thus to think of p as a conditional probability of q₀ on q_−∞, which is the infinite disjunction of all the q_n.

But q_−∞ is a rather odd proposition. It is grounded in q_n for every finite n, assuming that a disjunction, even an infinite one, is grounded in its true disjuncts. Thus every one of the q_n is explanatorily prior to q_−∞. But this means that P(q₀∣q_−∞) is actually a conditional probability of q₀ on something that isn’t explanatorily prior to q₀—indeed, that is explanatorily posterior to q₀. This challenges the interpretation of p as a chance of getting chicken c₀.

I am not quite sure what conclusion to draw from the above argument. Maybe it offers some support for causal finitism, by suggesting that things are weird when you have a backwards infinite causal sequence?

Causal Robinson Arithmetic

Say that a structure N that has a distinguished element 0, a unary function S, and binary operations + and ⋅ is a causal Robinson Arithmetic (CRA) structure iff:

1. The structure N satisfies the axioms of Robinson Arithmetic, and

2. For any x in N, x is a partial cause of the object Sx.

The Fundamental Metaphysical Axiom of CRA is:

• For every sentence ϕ in the language of arithmetic, ϕ is either true in every metaphysically possible CRA structure or false in every metaphysically possible CRA structure.

Causal Finitism—the doctrine that nothing can have infinitely many things causally prior to it—implies that any CRA is order isomorphic to the standard natural numbers (for any element in the CRA structure other than zero, the sequence of predecessors will be causally prior to it, and so by Causal Finitism must be finite, and hence the number can be mapped to a standard natural number), and hence implies the Fundamental Metaphysical Axiom of CRA.

Given the Fundamental Metaphysical Axiom of CRA, we have a causal-structuralist foundation for arithmetic, and hence for meta-mathematics: We say that a sentence ϕ of arithmetic is true if and only if it is true in all metaphysically possible CRA structures.

More on God causing infinite regresses

In my previous two posts I focused on the difficulty of God creating an infinite causal regress of indeterministic causes as part of an argument from theism to causal finitism. In this post, I want to drop the indeterministic assumption.

Suppose God creates a backwards infinite causal regress of (say) chickens, where each chicken is caused by parent chickens, the parent chickens by grandparent chickens, and so on. Now, I take it that the classical theist tradition is right that no creaturely causation can function without divine cooperation. Thus, every case where a chicken is caused by parent chickens is a case of divine cooperation.

Could God’s creative role here be limited to divine cooperation? This is absurd. For then God would be creating chickens by cooperating with chickens!

So what else is there? One doubtless correct thing to say is this: God also sustains each chicken between its first moment of life and its time of death. But this sustenance doesn’t seem to solve the problem, because the sustenance is not productive of the chickens—it is what keeps each chicken in existence after it has come on the scene. So while there is sustenance, it isn’t enough. God cannot create chickens by cooperating with chickens and by sustaining them.

Thus God needs to have some special creative role in the production of at least some of the chickens, fulfilling a task over and beyond cooperation and sustenance. Furthermore, this special task must be done by God in the case of an infinite number of the chickens, since otherwise there would be a time before which that task was not fulfilled—and yet God created infinitely the chickens before that time, too, since we’re assuming an infinite regress of chickens.

What happens in these cases? One might say is that in these special cases, God doesn’t cooperate with the parent chickens. But since no creaturely causation happens without divine cooperation, in these cases the parent chickens don’t produce their offspring, which contradicts our assumption of the chickens forming a causal regress. So that won’t do.

So in these cases, we seem to have two things happening: divine cooperation with chicken reproduction and divine creation of the chicken. Since divine cooperation with chicken reproduction is sufficient to produce the offspring, and divine creation of the chicken is also sufficient, it follows that in these cases we have causal overdetermination.

Now, we have some problems. First, does this overdetermination happen in all cases of chicken reproduction or only in some? It doesn’t need to happen in all of them, since it is overdetermination after all. But if it happens only in some, then it is puzzling to ask how God chooses which cases he overdetermines and which he does not.

Second, when there is overdetermination, the overdetermination is not needed for the effect. So it seems that if God’s additional role is that of overdetermining the outcome, that role is an unnecessary role, and the chickens could be produced by mere divine cooperation, which we saw is absurd. This isn’t perhaps the strongest of arguments. One might say that while in each particular case the overdetermining divine creative action is not needed, it is needed that it occur in some (indeed, infinitely many) cases.

Third, just as it is obviously absurd if God creates chickens merely by cooperating with chickens, it seems problematic, and perhaps absurd, that God creates chickens merely by cooperating with chickens and overdetermining that cooperation.

Famously, Aquinas thinks that God could have created an infinite regress of fathers and sons, and hence presumably of chickens as well. At this point, I can think of only one plausible way of getting Aquinas out of the above arguments, and it’s not a very attractive way. Instead of saying that God cooperates with the production of offspring, we can say that occasionalism holds in every case of substantial causation, that all causation of one substance’s existence by another is a case of direct divine non-cooperative causation, with the creaturely causation perhaps only limited to the transmission of accidents. Like all occasionalism, an occasionalism about substance causation is unappealing philosophically and theologically.

God and chancy infinite causal regresses

Suppose that a dod is a critter that chancily, with probability 1/2, causes one offspring during its life. The lifespan of a dod is one year. Further, imagine that like Sith, there are only ever one or two dods at a time, because each dod dies not long after reproducing, and if there were two or more mature dods at once, they’d fight to the death.

Now, imagine we have an infinite regress of dods, because each dod comes from an earlier dod. This would be hard to believe! After all, at any time at which we have a dod, we should be extremely (infinitely?) surprised that the dods haven’t died out yet. After all the probability that, given a dod at some time that there would be a dod in n years exponentially decreases with n.

Assuming causal finitism is false, it seems God could intentionally create an infinite regress of dods. But what would that look like? Here’s one story. God overrides the chances and directly and intentionally creates a backwards-infinite (and maybe even forwards-infinite, if he so chooses) sequence of dods. In that case, within that sequence the 1/2 chance of dod reproduction plays no explanatory role whatsoever. It seems we have occasionalism or a miracle or both. In any case, it does not appear that we actually have an infinite causal regress of dods in this case—the causation between dods, with its 1/2 chance, seems not to have any explanatory role. So the “overriding” story doesn’t work.

The other option is the Thomistic story. God doesn’t override chances. Instead, through primary causation, God concurs in creaturely causation and makes the finite cause produce its effect in such a way that the finite cause is fully acting as an indeterministic cause (this goes along with a view on which God can make us freely and indeterministically choose things). But this is very strange. For what explanatory role does the 1/2 in the chancy causation play? Assuming God wanted there to be an infinite sequence of dods, he could do exactly the same thing if the chance were 1/10 or 9/10 or even 1. It seems that the dod reproduces if and only if God intends the dod to reproduce, and whether God intends the dod to reproduce seems to have nothing to do with the “1/2” in the dod’s reproductive probabilities—it’s not plausible that God has probability 1/2 of intending each given dod to reproduce. And if God had probability 1/2 of intending each given dod to reproduce, how could he intentionally ensure that there ever are any dods, since the probability that God has infinitely many of these individual-dod-reproduction intentions is zero.

So we have problems. This gives further evidence that theism implies causal finitism.

From theism to causal finitism

Causal Finitism—the thesis that nothing can have an infinite causal history—implies that there is a first cause, and our best hypothesis for what a first cause would be is God. Thus:

1. If Causal Finitism is true, God exists.

But I think one can also argue in the other direction:

2. If God exists, Causal Finitism is true.

Aquinas wouldn’t like this since he thought that God could create a per accidens ordered backwards-infinite causal series.

In this post, I want to sketch an argument for (2). The form of the argument is this.

3. God cannot create a sequence of beings ..., A₋₃, A₋₂, A₋₁, A₀ where each being causes the next one.

4. If God cannot create such a sequence, such a sequence is impossible.

5. The best explanation of the impossibility of such a sequence is Causal Finitism.

Claim (4) comes from omnipotence. Claim (5) is I think the weakest part of the argument. Causal Finitism follows logically from the conjunction of two theses, one ruling out backwards-infinite causal chains and the other ruling out infinite causal cooperation (a precise statement and a proof is given in Chapter 2 of my Infinity book). But I am now coming to think that there is a not crazy view where one accepts the anti-chain part of Causal Finitism but not the anti-cooperation part. However, (a) the main cost of Causal Finitism come from the anti-chain part (the anti-chain part is what forces either a discrete time or a discrete causal reinterpretation of physics), (b) there are significant anti-paradox benefits to maintaining the anti-cooperation part, and (c) the theory may seem more unified in having both parts.

Now let’s move on to (3). Here is an argument. Say that an instance of causation is chancy provided that the outcome has a probability less than one.

6. If God can create a backwards-infinite causal sequence of beings, he can create a backwards-infinite chancy causal sequence of beings as the only thing in creation.

7. Necessarily, if God creates a backwards-infinite chancy causal sequence of beings as the only thing in creation, then there is no creature x such that God determines x to exist.

8. Necessarily, if God creates, he acts in a way that determines that something other than God exists.

9. Necessarily, if God determines that something other than God exists then there is a creature x that God determines x to exist.

10. Necessarily, if God creates a backwards-infinite chancy causal sequence of beings, then there is a creature x such that God determines x to exist. (8,9)

11. Hence, God cannot create a backwards-infinite chancy causal sequence of beings. (7,10)

12. Hence, God cannot create a backwards-infinite causal sequence of beings. (6,11)

The thought behind (6) is an intuition about modal uniformity. I think (6) is probably the most vulnerable part of the argument, but I don’t think it’s the one Aquinas would attack. What I think Aquinas would attack would most likely be (7). I will get to that shortly.

But first a few words about (8). In theory, it is possible to determine that something exists without determining any particular thing to exist. One can imagine a being with a chancy causal power such that if it waves a wand necessarily either a bunny or a pigeon is caused to exist, with the probability of the bunny being 1/2 and the probability of the pigeon being 1/2. But God is not like that. God’s will is essentially efficacious and not chancy. God can play dice with the universe, but only by creating dice. Thus, if God wanted to ensure there is a bunny or a pigeon without ensuring which specific one exists, he would have to create a random system that has chancy propensities for a bunny and for a pigeon and that must exercise one of the two propensities.

In fact, I think divine simplicity may imply this. For by divine simplicity, any two possible worlds that differ must differ in something outside God. Now consider a world w₁ where God determines a bunny to exist, and a world w₂ where God merely determines that a bunny or a pigeon exists and in fact a bunny is what comes about. There seems to be no difference outside God between these two worlds (one might wonder about the relation of being-created: could there be an relation of being-created-chancily and being-created-non-chancily? this seems fishy to me, and suggests a regress—how are the two relations differently related to God? and do we want to multiply such relations, saying there is such a thing as being-created-chancily-with-probability-0.7?). If both worlds are possible, by divine simplicity they must be the same, which is absurd. So at least one must be impsosible. And w₂ is a better candidate for that than w₁.

That still doesn’t establish (8). For I admitted that God can play dice if he creates dice. Thus, it seems that God could determine that something exists without determining where it’s A or B or C (say) by determining there to be dice that decide whether A or B or C are produced. But on this story, God still determines there to be dice, so there is an x—a die—that God determines to exist. I think a bit more could be said here, but as I said, I don’t think this is the main thing Aquinas would object to.

Back to (7). Why can’t God create a chancy backwards-infinite causal sequence while determining some item A_n in it to exist? Well, the sequence is chancy, so the probability that A_n − 1 causes A_n given that A_n − 1 exists is some p < 1. But, necessarily, if one creature causes another, it does so with divine cooperation (Aquinas will not disagree), and conversely if God cooperates with one creature to cause another, the one creature does cause the other. That the probability that God cooperates with A_n − 1 to cause A_n is equal to the probability that A_n − 1 causes A_n, because necessarily one thing happens if and only if the other does. Thus, the probability that God cooperates with A_n − 1 to cause A_n, given that A_n − 1 exists, is p. But p < 1, so it sure doesn’t look like a case of God determining A_n to exist!

But perhaps there is something like overdetermination, but between determination and chanciness (so not exactly over-determination). Perhaps God both determines A_n to exist and chancily cooperates with A_n − 1 to produce A_n. One problem with this hypothesis is with divine simplicity: it does not seem that there is any difference outside God between a world where God does both and God merely cooperates or concurs. But Aquinas may respond: “Yes, exactly. Necessarily, when one creature chancily causes another, God’s primary causation determines which specific outcome results. Thus there is no world where God merely cooperates.” So now the view is that whenever we have chancy causation, necessarily God determines the outcome. But suppose I chancily toss a coin, and it has chance 1/2 of heads and chance 1/2 of tails. Then on this view, I get heads if and only if God determines that I get heads. Hence the chance that God determines I get heads is 1/2. But it seems plausible that God’s determinations are not measured by numerical probabilities, and in any case that they are not measured by numerical probabilities coming from our world’s physics!

Grim Toe-Cutters

Imagine that Fred has all ten toes at 10 am, and there are infinitely many grim reapers. When a grim reaper wakes up, it looks at Fred, and if he has all his ten toes, it cuts one off and destroys it; otherwise, it does nothing. There are no other toe-cutters around.

Suppose, further, that grim reaper wake-up times can be set by you to any times between 10 and noon, endpoints not included. If you set the activation times to be such that there is a first activation time after 10 am (e.g., the nth reaper wakes up 60/n minutes before noon), there is no paradox of any sort. But if you set the times such that they are all after 10 am, but before every activation time there is another activation time, then… well, then logic guarantees that Fred will get a toe cut off infinitely many times and will regrow a toe infinitely many times! For without toe-regrowing, we get a paradox.

This is, of course, logically and metaphysically possible. Toes can regrow, and it is metaphysically though perhaps not physically possible for them to do so quickly. But what is amazing is that just by setting wake-up times for grim toe-cutters, we can make this miracle happen.

Grim Reapers and logical impossibility

The main objection to the Grim Reaper paradox as an argument against infinite causal sequences is the Unsatisfiable Pair (UP) objection that notes that paradox sets up an impossible situation—and that’s why it’s impossible!

I’m exploring a response that distinguishes metaphysical and (narrowly) logical unsatisfiability. The Grim Reaper situation is not logically unsatisfiable. The UP objection (well, really, Unsatisfiable Quadruple) notes that the following cannot all be true:

1. For all n > 0, the nth reaper wakes up at 60/n minutes after 10 am and kills Fred if and only if Fred is alive.

2. Fred is alive at 10 am.

3. There are no possible causes of Fred’s death other than those described in (1).

4. There are no possible causes of Fred’s resurrection.

But all that’s needed to have these four claims hold is for each reaper to kill Fred and then have Fred causelessly come back to life before the next one kills him. And while I think causeless resurrections are metaphysically impossible, they are (narrowly) logically coherent.

In other words, for the UP objection to work, the unsatisfiability must be metaphysical, not merely narrowly logical. But this, I think, negatively affects the force of the UP objection. For instance, in my Infinity book I consider Grim Reapers with adjustable wake-up times, and I note that for some wake-up time settings (say, the nth reaper wakes up 60/n minutes before noon) there is no paradox, and I ask what metaphysical force prevents the wake-up time settings from being the paradoxical ones. Daniel Rubio in a review of the book responds (in the context of a parody) that “no metaphysical thesis is required to explain this impossibility; the fact that it would lead to a contradiction is enough.” But in fact a metaphysical thesis is required to explain the impossibility, since there is no contradiction (in the narrowly logical sense) in (1)–(4).

Perhaps this is not a big deal. After all the metaphysical thesis here, that causeless events are impossible, is one that I do accept. But nonetheless it is a metaphysical thesis, as such on par with causal finitism, and hence when we consider the explanation of the impossibility of the Grim Reaper story and the impossibility of various other of the causal paradoxes that I discuss, there is something appealing about seeing the case as nonetheless offering support for causal finitism, which explains all of them, while the thesis about causeless events being impossible does not.

Unreliable Grim Reapers

As usual, Fred is alive at 10 am, and there is an infinite sequence of Grim Reapers, where the nth has an alarm set for 60/n minutes after 10 am, and if the alarm goes off, it checks if Fred is dead, and swings its scythe at Fred if and only if Fred is alive. But here’s the twist. These Grim Reapers are unreliable killers. The probability that the nth Reaper’s swing would succeed in killing Fred is 1/n^p, where p is some positive real number, the same for each Reaper, and independently of all other relevant events.

Here’s the fun thing. It seems possible for Fred to survive the whole ordeal. All it takes is for every Grim Reaper to fail at killing Fred. Nothing absurd happens then. Moreover, it seems this isn’t the only way for absurdity to be avoided in this case. We could also suppose that the nth Reaper kills Fred, while Reapers n + 1, n + 2, … all fail.

Suppose we adopt what seems the best alternative to Causal Finitism, namely the Inconsistent Pair response to the original Grim Reaper paradox, which says that the reason the original paradox is impossible is simply because it embodies an Inconsistent set of propositions—some Reaper has to kill Fred and none can. If that’s what’s wrong with the original Grim Reaper paradox, then it seems we have to accept my Unreliable Reaper story as possible.

But things are a little bit more complicated. The only way to avoid paradox in the Unreliable Reaper story is if there is some n ≥ 0 such that all the Reapers starting with Reaper n + 1 fail. But now suppose that 0 < p ≤ 1. Then the event that all the Reapers starting with Reaper n + 1 fail is less than or equal to (1−1/(n+1)^p)(1−1/(n+2)^p)(1−1/(n+3)^p)... = 0 (this is because Σ_k 1/k^p = ∞ if p ≤ 1). Thus the probability that we have avoided paradox is 0. Hence, if we have to avoid paradox, a specific zero probability event—namely, the event of paradox-avoidance—has to happen (the probability of a countable disjunction of zero probability events is zero). But if it has to happen, it can’t be probability zero, but must be probability one!

Perhaps here we bring back the Inconsistent Pair response. We say that my Unreliable Reaper story is impossible if p ≤ 1, because if p ≤ 1, then a zero probability event has probability one, which is inconsistent. No such problem occurs if p > 1. Thus, on this version of the Inconsistent Pair response, my Unreliable Reaper story is impossible if the success probability of the nth Reaper is 1/n^p for p ≤ 1 but possible if p > 1. And that’s pretty counterintuitive.

On finitistic addition

By a finite alphabet encoding of a set X, such as the real numbers, I mean a one-to-one function ψ from X to countably infinite sequences s₀s₁... taken from some finite alphabet. For instance, standard decimal encoding, with a decision whether to have infinite sequences of trailing nines or not, is a finite alphabet encoding of the reals, with the alphabet consisting of ten digits, a decimal point and a sign. Write ψ_k(x) for the kth symbol in the encoding ψ(x) of x.

A function f from Rⁿ to R is finitistic with respect to a finite alphabet encoding ψ provided that there is a function h from the natural numbers to the natural numbers such that the value of ψ_k(f(x₁,...,x_n)) depends only on the first h(k) symbols in each of ψ(x₁), ..., ψ(x_n).

This concept is related to concepts in “real computation”, but I am not requiring that the finite dependences be all implemented by the same Turing machine.

Theorem: Let X be any infinite divisible commutative group. Then addition on X is not finitistic with respect to any finite alphabet encoding.

A divisible group X is one where for every x ∈ X there is a y such that ny = x. The real numbers under addition are divisible. So are the rationals. So is the set of all rotations in the plane.

This has a somewhat unhappy consequence for Information Processing Finitism. If reality encodes real numbers in a discrete way consistent with IPF, we should not expect each real number to have a uniquely specified encoding.

Proof of Theorem: Suppose addition is finitistic with respect to ψ. Let F be the algebra on X generated by the sets of the form {x : ψ_k(x) = α}. If addition is finitistic, then for any A ∈ F, there is a finite sequence of pairs (A₁,B₁), ..., (A_N,B_N) of sets in F such that

1. {(x,y) : x + y ∈ A} = ⋃_i(A_i×B_i).

Therefore:

2. x + y ∈ A if and only if x ∈ ⋃{A_i : y ∈ B_i}.

Thus:

3.  − y + A =  ∪ {A_i : y ∈ B_i}.

Now as y varies over the members of X, there are at most 2^N different sets generated by the right hand side. Thus,  − y + A can take on only finitely many values. Hence, A has only finitely many translates.

But this is impossible. Let Z be the set of x such that x + A = A. This is an additive subgroup of X. Note that x + Z = y + Z iff x − y ∈ Z iff (x−y) + A = A iff x + A = y + A. Thus, if there are only finitely many x + A, there are finitely many x + Z. Hence X/Z is a finite group. Let n be its order. Then n[x] = 0 for every coset [x] = x + Z in R/Z. For any x ∈ X choose y such that ny = x. Then n[y] = 0, and so [x] = 0, thus Z = X. It follows that A is invariant under every translation, so it must be either ⌀ or X. Hence |F| ≤ 2, which is absurd since F is infinite as X is infinite and ψ is one-to-one.

(I got the main idea for this proof from the answer here.)

Information Processing Finitism, Part II

In my previous post, I explored information processing finitism (IPF), the idea that nothing can essentially causally depend on an infinite amount of information about contingent things.

Since a real-valued parameter, such as mass or coordinate position, contains an infinite amount of information, a dynamics that fits with IPF needs some non-trivial work. One idea is to encode a real-valued parameter r as a countable sequence of more fundamental discrete parameters r₁, r₂, ... where r_i takes its value in some finite set R_i, and then hope that we can make the dynamics be such that each discrete parameter depends only on a finite number of discrete parameters at earlier times.

In the previous post, I noted that if we encode real numbers as Cauchy sequences of rationals with a certain prescribed convergence rate, then we can do something like this, at least for a toy dynamics involving continuous functions on between 0 and 1 inclusive. However, an unhappy feature of the Cauchy encoding is that it’s not unique: a given real number can have multiple Cauchy encodings. This means that on such an account of physical reality, physical reality has more information in it than is expressed in the real numbers that are observable—for the encodings are themselves a part of reality, and not just the real numbers they encode.

So I’ve been wondering if there is some clever encoding method where each real number, at least between 0 and 1, can be uniquely encoded as a countable sequence of discrete parameters such that for every continuous function f from [0,1] to [0,1], the value of each parameter discrete parameter corresponding to of f(x) depends only on a finite number of discrete parameters corresponding to x.

Sadly, the answer is negative. Here’s why.

Lemma. For any nonempty proper subset A of [0,1], there are uncountably many sets of the form f⁻¹[A] where f is a continuous function from [0,1] to [0,1].

Given the lemma, without loss of generality suppose all the parameters are binary. For the ith parameter, let B_i be the subset of [0,1] where the parameter equals 1. Let F be the algebra of subsets of [0,1] generated by the B_i. This is countable. Any information that can be encoded by a finite number of parameters corresponds to a member of F. Suppose that whether f(x) ∈ A for some A ∈ F depends on a finite number of parameters. Then there is a C ∈ F such that x ∈ C iff f(x) ∈ A. Thus, C = f⁻¹[A]. Thus, F is uncountable by the lemma, a contradiction.

Quick sketch of proof of lemma: The easier case is where either A or its complement is non-dense in [0,1]—then piecewise linear f will do the job. If A and its complement are dense, let (a_n) and (b_n) be a sequence decreasing to 0 such that both a_n and b_n are within 1/2^n + 2 of 1/2ⁿ, but a_n ∈ A and b_n ∉ A. Then for any set U of positive integers, there will be a strictly increasing continuous function f_U such that f_U(a_n) = a_n if n ∈ U and f_U(b_n) = a_n if n ∉ U. Note that f_U⁻¹[A] contains a_n if and only if n ∈ A and contains b_n if and only if n ∉ A. So for different sets U, f_U⁻¹[A] is different, so there are continuum-many sets of the form f_U⁻¹[A].

Information Processing Finitism

When I was trying to work out my intuitions about causal paradoxes of infinity, which eventually led to my formulating the thesis of causal finitism (CF)—that nothing can have an infinite causal history—I toyed with views that involved information. I ended up largely abandoning that approach, partly because of my qualms about the concept of information and perhaps partly because of worries about physics that I will discuss below.

But I still think the alternative, which one might call information processing finitism, is something someone should work out in more detail.

• [IPF] Nothing with finite informational content can essentially causally depend on anything with infinite informational content.

Here, informational content is by definition contingent. The “essentially” excludes cases where finite informational content depends on a finite part of something with infinite informational content. How exactly the “essentially” is spelled out is one thing I am not clear on as yet.

The main difficulty with IPF is that our physics seems to violate it. The exact current temperature in Waco depends on the exact temperature, pressure and other facts around the world yesterday. Each of the latter facts involves infinite information—temperature is quantified with a real number, and a real number contains infinite information. Note that here IPF and CF may diverge. An advocate of CF can say that the exact current temperature in Waco depends on a finite number of past events such as “yesterday particle n has parameters P”, even if the parameters P involve real numbers that have infinite energy.

One way to escape this difficulty is to assume that our fundamental physics is actually discrete, and the real numbers in our equations are just an approximation. But I don’t want to stick my neck out so far.

Let’s see if we can make IPF work out with a continuous dynamics. We can suppose that metaphysically speaking, an entity’s having a real-valued parameter is constituted by the entity’s having an infinite sequence of discrete parameters, which parameters are more ontologically fundamental than the real-valued parameter.

For instance, by a one-to-one mapping we can assume our real number is strictly between zero and one, and then define it as an infinite decimal sequence 0.b₁b₂..., specified by an infinite sequence of digits. Unfortunately, then, we have some severe restrictions on what kind of dynamics we can have if we require that each digit of the output depend only on a finite number of digits of the input. For instance, multiplication by 3/4 cannot be defined, because to know whether f(x) starts with 0.24 or 0.25, you’d have to know whether x < 1/3 or x ≥ 1/3, and if the input is 0.333..., then you can’t tell from a finite number of digits which is the case. This kind of problem will occur with any other base.

It would be really nice to find some way of encoding a real number as an infinite sequence of discrete parameters each of which takes on a fixed finite range that escapes this kind of a problem. I am pretty sure this is impossible, but am too tired to prove it right now.

But there is another approach. We can have non-unique (many-to-one) encodings of reals. Here is one such approach, probably not the most natural one. Consider sequences of natural numbers n₁, n₂, ... such that for all k we have n_k ≤ 2k and there exists a real number x between 0 and 1 inclusive with the property that |x−n_k/2k| ≤ 1/k. Say that such a sequence encodes the real number x. In general, there will be more than one sequence encoding x by this rule.

Then if f is a function from [0,1] to [0,1], if we have a sequence n₁, n₂, ... encoding the real number x, to generate an acceptable kth term in a sequence encoding f(x), it suffices to know f(x) to within precision 1/2k, and if f is continuous, then we can do that by knowing a finite number of terms in a sequence encoding x (this is because every continuos function on [0,1] is uniformly continuous).

So any continuous dynamics from [0,1] to [0,1] can be handled in this way. The cost is that fundamental reality has degrees of freedom that are unimportant physically—for fundamental reality distinguishes between different sequences encoding the same real x, but the difference has no physical significance.

I don’t know if there is a way to do this with a unique encoding.

A new argument for causal finitism

I will give an argument for causal finitism from a premise I don’t accept:

1. Necessary Arithmetical Alethic Incompleteness (NAAI): Necessarily, there is an arithmetical sentence that is neither true nor false.

While I don’t accept NAAI, some thinkers (e.g., likely all intuitionists) accept it.

Here’s the argument:

2. If infinite causal histories are possible, supertasks are possible.

3. If supertasks are possible, for every arithmetical sentence, there is a possible world where someone knows whether the sentence is true or false by means of a supertask.

4. If for every arithmetical sentence there is a possible world where someone knows whether the sentence is true or false by means of a supertask, there is a possible world where for every arithmetical sentence someone knows whether it is true or false.

5. Necessarily, if someone knows whether p is true or false, then p is true or false.

6. So, if infinite causal histories are possibly, possibly all arithmetical sentences are true or false. (2-5)

7. So, infinite causal histories are impossible. (1, 6)

The thought behind (3) is that if for every n it is possible to check the truth value of ϕ(n) by a finite task or supertask, then by an iterated supertask it is possible to check the truth values of ∀xϕ(x) (and equivalently ∃xϕ(x)). Since every arithmetical sequence can be written in the form Q₁x₁...Q_kx_kϕ(x₁,...,x_k), where the truth value of ϕ(n₁,...,n_k) is finitely checkable, it follows that every arithmetical sequence can have its truth value checked by a supertask.

The thought behind (4) is that one can imagine an infinite world (say, a multiverse) where for every arithmetical sentence ϕ the relevant supertask is run and hence the truth value of the sentence is known.

Evolution of my views on mathematics

I have for a long time inclined towards ifthenism in mathematics: the idea that mathematics discovers truths of the form "If these axioms are true, then this thing is true as well."

Two things have weakened my inclination to ifthenism.

The first is that there really seems to be a privileged natural number structure. For any consistent sufficiently rich recursive axiomatization A of the natural numbers, by Goedel’s Second Incompleteness Theorem (plus Completeness) there is a natural number structure satisfying A accordingto which A is inconsistent and there is a natural number structure satisfying A according to which A is consistent. These two structures can’t be on par—one of them needs to be privileged.

The second is an insight I got from Linnebo’s philosophy of mathematics book: humans did mathematics before they did axiomatic mathematics. Babylonian apparently non-axiomatic but sophisticated mathematics came before Greek axiomatic geometry. It is awkward to think that the Babylonians were discovering ifthenist truths, given that they didn’t have a clear idea of the antecedents of the ifthenist conditionals.

I am now toying with the idea that there is a metaphysically privileged natural number structure but we have ifthenism for everything else in mathematics.

How is the natural number structure privileged? I think as follows: the order structure of the natural numbers is a possible order structure for a causal sequence. Causal finitism, by requiring all initial segments under the causal relation to be finite, requires the order type of the natural numbers to be ω. But once we have fixed the order type to be ω, we have fixed the natural number structure to be standard.

Realism about arithmetical truth

It seems very plausible that for any specific Turing machine M there is a fact of the matter about whether M would halt. We can just imagine running the experiment in an idealized world with an infinite future, and surely either it will halt or it won’t halt. No supertasks are needed.

This commits one to realism about Σ₁ arithmetical propositions: for every proposition expressible in the form ∃nϕ(n) where ϕ(n) has only bounded quantifiers, there is a fact of the matter whether the proposition is true. For there is a Turing machine that halts if and only if ∃nϕ(n).

But now consider a Π₂ proposition, one expressible in the form ∀m∃nϕ(m,n), where again ϕ(m,n) has only bounded quantifiers. For each fixed m, there is a Turing machine M_m whose halting is equivalent to ∃nϕ(m,n). Imagine now a scenario where on day m of an infinite future you build and start M_m. Then there surely will be a fact of the matter whether all of these Turing machines will halt, a fact equivalent to ∀m∃nϕ(m,n).

What about a Σ₃ proposition, one expressible in the form ∃r∀m∃nϕ(r,m,n)? Well, we could imagine for each fixed r running the above experiment starting on day r in the future to determine whether the Π₂ proposition ∀m∃nϕ(r,m,n) is true, and then there surely is a fact of the matter whether at least one of these experiments gives a positive answer.

And so on. Thus there is a fact of the matter whether any statement in the arithmetical hierarchy—and hence any statement in the language of arithmetic—is true or false.

This argument presupposes a realism about deterministic idealized machine counterfactuals: if I were to build such and such a sequence of deterministic idealized machines, they would behave in such and such a way.

The argument also presupposes that we have a concept of the finite and of countable infinity: it is essential that our Turing machines be run for a countable sequence of steps in the future and that the tape begin with a finite number of symbols on it. If we have causal finitism, we can get the concept of the finite out of the metaphysics of the world, and a discrete future-directed causal sequence of steps is guaranteed to be countable.

Hyperreal worlds

In a number of papers, I argued against using hyperreal-valued probabilities to account for zero probability but nonetheless possible events, such as a randomly thrown dart hitting the exact center of the target, by assigning such phenomena non-zero but infinitesimal probability.

But it is possible to accept all my critiques, and nonetheless hold that there is room for hyperreal-valued probabilities.

Typically, physicists model our world’s physics with a calculus centered on real numbers. Masses are real numbers, wavefunctions are functions whose values are pairs of real numbers (or, equivalently, complex numbers), and so on. This naturally fits with real-valued probabilities, for instance via the Born rule in quantum mechanics.

However, even if our world is modeled by the real numbers, perhaps there could be a world with similar laws to ours, but where hyperreal numbers figure in place of our world’s real ones. If so, then in such a world, we would expect to have hyperreal-valued probabilities. We could, then, say that whether chances are rightly modeled with real-valued probabilities or hyperreal-valued probabilities depends on the laws of nature.

This doesn’t solve the problems with zero probability issues. In fact, in such a world we would expect to have the same issues coming up for the hyperreal probabilities. In that world, a dartboard would have a richer space of possible places for the dart to hit—a space with a coordinate system defined by pairs of hyperreal numbers instead of pairs of real numbers—and the probability of hitting a single point could still be zero. And in our world, the probabilities would still be real numbers. And my published critiques of hyperreal probabilities would not apply, because they are meant to be critiques of the application of such probabilities to our world.

There is, however, a potential critique available, on the basis of causal finitism. Plausibly, our world has an infinite number of future days, but a finite past, so on any day, our world’s past has only finitely many days. The set of future days in our world can be modeled with the natural numbers. An analogous hyperreal-based world would have a set of future days that would be modeled with the hypernatural numbers. But because the hypernatural numbers include infinite numbers, that world would have days that were preceded by infinitely (though hyperfinitely) many days. And that seems to violate causal finitism. More generally, any hyperreal world will either have a future that includes a finite number of days or one that includes days that have infinitely many days prior to them.

If causal finitism is correct, then “hyperreal worlds”, ones similar to ours but where hyperreals figure where in our our world we have reals, must have a finite future, unlike our world. This is an interesting result, that for worlds like ours, having real numbers as coordinates is required in order to have both causal finitism true and yet an infinite future.

Rooted and unrooted branching actualism

Branching actualist theories of modality say that metaphysical possibility is grounded in the powers of actual substances to bring about different states of affairs. There are two kinds of branching actualist theories: rooted and unrooted. On rooted theories, there are some necessarily existing items (e.g., God) whose causal powers “root” all the possibilities. On unrooted theories, we have an ungrounded infinite regress of earlier and earlier substances. In my dissertation, I defended a theistic rooted theory, but in the conclusion mentioned a weaker version on which there is no commitment to a root. At the time, I thought that not many would be attracted to an unrooted version, but when I gave talks on the material at various department, I was surprised that some atheists found the unrooted theory attractive. And such theories have indeed been more recently defended by Oppy and Malpass.

I still think a rooted version is better. I’ve been thinking about this today, and found an interesting advantage: rooted theories can allow for a tighter connection between ideal conceivability and metaphysical possibility (or, equivalently, a prioricity and metaphysical necessity). Specifically, consider the following appealing pair of connection theses:

1. If a proposition is metaphysically possible (i.e., true in a metaphysically possible world), then it is ideally conceivable.

2. If a proposition is ideally conceivable, it is true in a world structurally isomorphic to a metaphysically possible one.

The first thesis is one that, I think, fits with both the rooted and unrooted theories of metaphysical possibility. I will focus on the second thesis. This is really a family of theses, depending on what we mean by “structurally isomorphic”. I am not quite sure what I mean by it—that’s a matter for further research. But let me sketch how I’m thinking about this. A world where dogs are reptiles is ideally conceivable—it is only a posteriori that we can know that dogs are mammals; it is not something that armchair biology can reveal. A world where dogs are reptiles is metaphysically impossible. But take a conceivable but impossible world w₁ where “dogs are reptiles”—maybe it’s a world where the hair of the dogs is actually scales, and contrary to immediate appearances the dogs are cold-blooded, and so on. Now imagine a world w₂ that’s structurally isomorphic to this impossible world—for instance, all the particles are in the same place, corresponding causal relations hold, etc.—and yet where the dogs of w₁ aren’t really dogs, but a dog-like species of reptile. Properly spelled out, such a world will be possible, and denizens of that world would say “dogs are reptiles”.

Or for another example, a world w₃ where Napoleon is my child is conceivable (it’s only a posteriori that we know this world not to be actual) but impossible. But it is possible to have a world w₄ where I have a Napoleon-like child whom I name “Napoleon”. That world can be set up to be structurally isomorphic to w₃.

Roughly, the idea is this. If something is conceivable but impossible, it will become possible if we change out the identities of individuals and natural kinds, while keeping all the “structure”. I don’t know what “structure” is exactly, but I think I won’t need more than an intuitive idea for my argument. Structure doesn’t care about the identities of kinds and individuals.

Now suppose that unrooted branching actualism is true. On such a theory, there is a backwards-infinite sequence of contingent events. Let D be a complete structural description of that sequence. Let p_D be the proposition saying that some infinite initial segment of the world fits with D. According to unrooted branching actualism, p_D is actually a necessary truth. But p_D is clearly a posteriori, and hence its denial is ideally conceivable. Let w₅ be an impossible world where p_D is false. If (2) is true, then there will be a possible world w₆ which is a structural isomorph of w₅. But because p_D is a structural description, if p_D is false in a world, it is false in any structural isomorph of that world. Thus, p_D has to be false in w₆, which contradicts the assumption that p_D is a necessary truth.

The rooted branching actualist doesn’t get (2) for free. I think the only way the rooted branching actualist can accept (2) is if they think that the existence and structure of the root entities is a priori. A theist can say that: God’s existence could be a priori (as Richard Gale once suggested, maybe there is an ontological argument for the existence of God, but we’re just not smart enough to see it).

Some finitisms

I’m thinking about the kinds of finitisms there are. Here are some:

1. Ontic finitism: There can only be finitely many entities.

2. Concrete finitism: There can only be finitely many concrete entities.

3. Generic finitism: There are only finitely many possible kinds of substances.

4. Weak species finitism: No world contains infinitely many substances of a single species.

5. Strong species finitism: No species contains infinitely many possible individuals.

6. Strong human finitism: There are only finitely many possible human individuals.

7. Causal finitism: Nothing can have infinitely many items in its causal history.

8. Explanatory finitism: Nothing can have infinitely many items in its explanatory history.

I think (1) and (2) are false, because eternalism is true and it is possible to have an infinite future with a new chicken coming into existence every day.

I’ve defended (7) at length. I would love to be able to defend (8), but for reasons discussed in that book, I fear it can’t

I don’t know any reason to believe (3) other than as an implication of (1) together with realism about species. I don’t know any reason to believe (4) other than as an implication of (2) or (5).

I can imagine a combination of metaphysical views on which (6) is defensible. For instance, it might turn out that humans are made out of stuff all of whose qualities are discribable with discrete mathematics, and that there are limits on the discrete quantities (e.g., a minimum and a maximum mass of a human being) in such a way that for any finite segment of human life, there are only finitely many possibilities. If one adds to that the Principle of the Identity of Indiscernibles, in a transworld form, one will have an argument that there can only be finitely many humans. And I suppose some version of this view that applies to species more generally would give (5). That said, I doubt (6) is true.