Truth-value realisms about arithmetic

Arithmetical truth-value realists hold that any proposition in the language of arithmetic has a fully determined truth value. Arithmetical truth-value necessists add that this truth value is necessary rather than merely contingent. Although we know from the incompleteness theorems that there are alternate non-standard natural number structures, with different truth values (e.g., there is a non-standard natural number structure according to which the Peano Axioms are inconsistent), the realist and necessist hold that when we engage in arithmetical language, we aren’t talking about these structures. (I am assuming either first-order arithmetic or second-order with Henkin semantics.)

Start by assuming arithmetical truth-value necessitism.

There is an interesting decision point for truth-value necessitism about arithmetic: Are these necessary truths twin-earthable? I.e., could there be a world whose denizens who talk arithmetically like we do, and function physically like we do, but whose arithmetical sentences express different propositions, with different and necessary truth values? This would be akin to a world where instead of water there is XYZ, a world whose denizens would be saying something false if they said “Water has hydrogen in it”.

Here is a theory on which we have twin-earthability. Suppose that the correct semantics of natural number talk works as follows. Our universe has an infinite future sequence of days, and the truth-values of arithmetical language are fixed by requiring the Peano Axioms (or just the Robinson Axioms) together with the thesis that the natural number ordering is order-isomorphic to our universe’s infinite future sequence of days, and then are rigidified by rigid reference to the actual world’s sequence of future days. But in another world—and perhaps even in another universe in our multiverse if we live in a multiverse—the infinite future sequence of days is different (presumably longer!), and hence the denizens of that world end up rigidifying a different future sequence of days to define the truth values of their arithmetical language. Their propositions expressed by arithmetical sentences sometimes have different truth values from ours, but that’s because they are different propositions—and they’re still as necessary as ours. (This kind of a theory will violate causal finitism.)

One may think of a twin-earthable necessitism about arithmetic as a kind of cheaper version of necessitism.

Should a necessitist go cheap and allow for such twin-earthing?

Here is a reason not to. On such a twin-earthable necessitism, there are possible universes for whose denizens the sentence “The Peano Axioms are consistent” expresses a necessary falsehood and there are possible universes for whose denizens the sentence expresses a necessary truth. Now, in fact, pretty much everybody with great confidence thinks that the sentence “The Peano Axioms are consistent” expresses a truth. But it is difficult to hold on to this confidence on twin-earthable necessitism. Why should we think that the universes the non-standard future sequences of days are less likely?

Here is the only way I can think of answering this question. The standard naturals embed into the non-standard naturals. There is a sense in which they are the simplest possible natural number structure. Simplicity is a guide to truth, and so the universes with simpler future sequences of days are more likely.

But this answer does not lead to a stable view. For if we grant that what I just said makes sense—that the simplest future sequences of days are the ones that correspond to the standard naturals—then we have a non-twin-earthable way of fixing the meaning of arithmetical language: assuming S5, we fix it by the shortest possible future sequence of days that can be made to satisfy the requisite axioms by adding appropriate addition and multiplication operations. And this seems a superior way to fix the meaning of arithmetical language, because it better fits with common intuitions about the “absoluteness” of arithmetical language. Thus it it provides a better theory than twin-earthable necessitism did.

I think the skepticism-based argument against twin-earthable necessitism about arithmetic also applies to non-necessitist truth-value realism about arithmetic. On non-necessitist truth-value realism, why should we think we are so lucky as to live in a world where the Peano Axioms are consistent?

Putting the above together, I think we get an argument like this:

1. Twin-earthable truth-value necessitism about arithmetic leads to skepticism about the consistency of arithmetic or is unstable.

2. Non-necessitist truth-value realism about arithmetic leads to skepticism about the consistency of arithmetic.

3. Thus, probably, if truth-value realism about arithmetic is true, non-twin-earthable truth-value necessitism about arithmetic is true.

The resulting realist view holds arithmetical truth to be fixed along both dimensions of Chalmers’ two-dimensional semantics.

(In the argument I assumed that there is no tenable way to be a truth-value realist only about Σ₁⁰ claims like “Peano Arithmetic is consistent” while resisting realism about higher levels of the hierarchy. If I am wrong about that, then in the above argument and conclusions “truth-value” should be replaced by “Σ₁⁰-truth-value”.)

A puzzle about consistency

Let T₀ be ZFC. Let T_n be T_n − 1 plus the claim Con(T_n − 1) that T_n − 1 is consistent. Let T_ω be the union of all the T_n for finite n.

Here’s a fun puzzle. It seems that T_ω should be able to prove its own consistency by the following reasoning:

If T_ω is inconsistent, then for some finite n we have T_n inconsistent. But Con(T_n) is true for every finite n.

This sure sounds convincing! It took me a while to think through what’s wrong here. The problem is that although for every finite n, T_ω can prove Con(T_n), it does not follow that T_ω can prove that for every finite n we have Con(T_n).

To make this point perhaps more clear, assume T_n is consistent for all n. Then Con(T_n) cannot be proved from T_n. Thus any finite subset of T_ω is consistent with the claim that for some finite n the theory T_n is inconsistent. Hence by compactness there is a model of T_ω according to which for some finite n the theory T_n is inconsistent. This model will have a non-standard natural number sequence, and “finite” of course will be understood according to that sequence.

Here’s another way to make the point. The theory T_ω proves T_ω consistent if and only if T_ω is consistent according to every model M. But the sentence “T_ω is consistent according to M” is ambiguous between understanding “T_ω” internally and externally to M. If we understand it internally to M, we mean that the set that M thinks consists of the axioms of ZFC together with the ω-iteration of consistency claims is consistent. And this cannot be proved if T_ω is consistent. But if we understand “T_ω” externally to M, we mean that upon stipulating that S is the object in M’s universe whose members^M correspond naturally to the members^V of T_ω (where V is “our true set theory”), according to M, it will be provable that the set S is consistent. But there is a serious problems: there just may be no such object as S in the domain of M and the stipulation may fail. (E.g., in non-standard analysis, the set of finite naturals is never an internal set.)

(One may think a second option is possible: There is such an object as S in M’s universe, but it can’t be referred to in M, in the sense that there is no formula ϕ(x) such that ϕ is satisfied by S and only by S. This option is not actually possible, however, in this case.)

Or so it looks to me. But all this is immensely confusing to me.

Non-formal provability

A simplified version of Goedel’s first incompleteness theorem (it’s really just a special case of Tarski’s indefinability of truth) goes like this:

• Given a sound semidecidable system of proof that is sufficiently rich for arithmetic, there is a true sentence g that is not provable.

Here:

• sound: if s is provable, s is true

• semidecidable: there is an algorithm that given any provable sentence verifies in a finite number of steps that it is provable.

The idea is that we start with a precisely defined ‘formal’ notion of proof that yields semidecidability of provably, and show that this concept of proof is incomplete—there are truths that can’t be proved.

But I am thinking there is another way of thinking about this stuff. Suppose that instead of working with a precisely defined concept of proof, we have something more like a non-formal or intuitive notion of proof, which itself is governed by some plausible axioms—if you can prove this, you can prove that, etc. That’s kind of how intuitionists think, but we don’t need to be intuitionists to find this approach attractive.

Note that I am not explicitly distinguishing axioms.

The idea is going to be this. The predicate P is not formally defined, but it still satisfies some formal constraints or axioms. These can be formulated in a formal language (Brouwer wouldn’t like this) that has a way of talking about strings of symbols and their concatenation and allows one to define a quotation function that given a string of symbols returns a string of symbols that refers to the first string.

One way to do this is to have a symbol ′α′ for any symbol α in the original language which refers to α, and a concatenation operator +, so one can then quote αβγ as ′α′ + ′β′ + ′γ′. I assume the language is rich enough to define a quotation function Q such that Q(x) is the quotation of a string x.

To formulate my axioms, I will employ some sloppy quotation mark shorthand, partly to compensate for the difficulty of dealing with corner quotes on the web. Thus, ′αβγ′ is shorthand for ′α′ + ′β′ + ′γ′, and as needed I will allow substitution inside the quotation marks. If there are nested quotation marks, the inner substitutions are resolved first.

1. For all sentences ϕ and ψ, if P(′ϕ↔︎∼ψ′) and P(′ϕ′), then P(′∼ϕ′).

2. For all sentences ϕ and ψ, if P(′ϕ↔︎∼ψ′) and P(′ψ→ϕ′), then P(′ϕ′).

3. For all sentences ϕ, we have P(′P(′ϕ′)→ϕ′).

4. If ϕ has a formal intuitionistic proof from sufficiently rich axioms of concatenation theory, then P(′ϕ′).

Here, (1) and (2) embody a little bit of facts about proof, both of which facts are intuitionistically and classically acceptable. Assumption (3) is the philosophically heaviest one, but it follows from its being axiom that if ϕ is provable, then ϕ, together with the fact that all axioms count as provable. That a formal intuitionistic proof is sufficient for provability is uncontroversial.

Using similar methods to those used to prove Goedel’s first incompleteness theorem, I think we should now be able to construct a sentence g and the prove, in a formal intuitionistic proof in a sufficiently rich concatenation theory, that:

5. g ↔︎  ∼ P(′g′).

But these facts imply a contradiction. Since 5 can be proved in our formal way, we have:

6. P(′g↔︎∼P(′g′)′). By 4.

7. P(′P(′g′)→g′). By 3.

8. P(′g′). By 6, 7 and 2.

9. P(′∼g′). By 6, 8 and 1.

Hence the system P is inconsistent in the sense that it makes both g and  ∼ g are provable.

This seems to me to be quite a paradox. I gave four very plausible assumptions about a provability property, and got the unacceptable conclusion that the provability property allows contradictions to be proved.

I expect the problem lies with 3: it lets one ‘cross levels’.

The lesson, I think, is that just as truth is itself something where we have to be very careful with the meta- and object-language distinction, the same is true of proof if we have something other than a formal notion.

Provability and truth

The most common argument that mathematical truth is not provability uses Tarski’s indefinability of truth theorem or Goedel’s first incompleteness theorem. But while this is a powerful argument, it won’t convince an intuitionist who rejects the law of excluded middle. Plus it’s interesting to see if a different argument can be constructed.

Here is one. It’s much less conclusive than the Tarski-Goedel approach. But it does seem to have at least a little bit of force. Sometimes we have experimental evidence (at least of the computer-based kind) for a mathematical claim. For instance, perhaps, you have defined some probabilistic setup, and you wonder what the expected value of some quantity Q is. You now set up an apparatus that implements the probabilistic setup, and you calculate the average value of your observations of Q. After a billion runs, the average value is 3.141597. It’s very reasonable to conclude that the last digit is a random deviation, and that the mathematically expected value of Q is actually π.

But is it reasonable to conclude that it’s likely provable that the expected value of Q is π? I don’t see why it would be. Or, at least, we should be much less confident that it’s provable than that the expected value is π. Hence, provability is not truth.

Incompleteness

For years in my logic classes I’ve been giving a rough but fairly accessible sketch of the fact that there are unprovable arithmetical truths (a special case of Tarski’s indefinability of truth), using an explicit Goedel sentence using concatenation of strings of symbols rather than Goedel encoding and the diagonal lemma.

I’ve finally revised the sketch to give the full First Incompleteness theorem, using Rosser’s trick. Here is a draft.

Is there infinity in our minds?

Start with this intuition:

1. Every sentence of first order logic with the successor predicate s(x,y) (which says that x is the natural number succeeding y) is determinately true or determinately false.

We learn from Goedel that:

2. No finitely specifiable (in the recursive sense) set of axioms is sufficient to characterize the natural numbers in a way sufficient to determine all of the above sentences.

This creates a serious problem. Given (2), how are our minds able to have a concept of natural number that is sufficiently determinate to make (1) true. It can’t be by us having some kind of a “definition” of natural numbers in terms of a finitely characterizable set of axioms.

Here is one interesting solution:

3. Our minds actually contain infinitely many axioms of natural numbers.

This solution is very difficult to reconcile with naturalism. If nature is analog, there will be a way of encoding infinitely many axioms in terms of the fine detail of our brain states (e.g., further and further decimal places of the distance between two neurons), but it is very implausible that anything mental depends on arbitrarily fine detail.

What could a non-naturalist say? Here is an Aristotelian option. There are infinitely many “axiomatic propositions” about the natural numbers such that it is partly constitutive of the human mind’s flourishing to affirm them.

While this option technically works, it is still weird: there will be norms concerning statements that are arbitrarily long, far beyond human lifetime.

I know of three other options:

4. Platonism with the natural numbers being somehow special in a way that other sets of objects satisfying the Peano axioms are not.

5. Magical theories of reference.

6. The causal finitist characterization of natural numbers in my Infinity book.

Of course, one might also deny (1). But then I will retreat from (1) to:

7. Every sentence of first order logic with the successor predicate s(x,y) and at most one unbounded quantifier is determinately true or determinately false.

I think (7) is hard to deny. If (7) is not true, there will be cases where there is no fact of the matter where a sentence of logic follows from some bunch of axioms. (Cf. this post.) And Goedelian considerations are sufficient to show that one cannot recursively characterize the sentences with one unbounded quantifier.

Materialism and incompleteness

It is sometimes thought that Goedel’s incompleteness theorems yield an argument against materialism, on something like the grounds that we can see that the Goedel sentence for any recursively axiomatizable system of arithmetic is true, and hence our minds cannot operate algorithmically.

In this post, I want to note that materialism is quite compatible with being able to correctly decide the truth value of all sentences of arithmetic. For imagine that we live in an infinite universe which contains infinitely many brass plaques with a sentence of arithmetic followed by the word “true” or “false”, such that every sentence of arithmetic is found on exactly one brass plaque. There is nothing contrary to materialsim in this assumption. Now add the further assumption that the word “true” is found on all and only the plaques containing a true sentence of arithmetic. Again, there is nothing contradicting materialism here. It could happen that way simply by chance movements of atoms! Next, imagine a machine where you type in a sentence of arithmetic, and the machine starts traveling outward in the universe in a spiral pattern until it arrives at a plaque with that sentence, reads whether the sentence is true or false, and comes back to you with the result. This could all be implemented in a materialist system, and yet you could then correctly decide the truth value of every sentence of arithmetic.

Note that we should not think of this as an algorithmic process. So the way that this example challenges the argument at the beginning of this post is by showing that materialism does not imply algorithmism.

Objection 1: The plaques are a part of the mechanism for deciding arithmetic, and so the argument only shows that an infinite materialistic machine could decide arithmetic. But our brains are finite.

Response: While our brains are finite, they are analog devices. An analog system contains an infinite amount of information. For instance, suppose that my brain particles have completely precise positions (e.g., on a Bohmian quantum mechanics). Then the diameter of my brain expressed in units of Planck length at some specific time t is some decimal number with infinitely many significant figures. It could turn out that this infinitely long decimal number encodes the truth values of all the sentences of arithmetic, and a machine that measures the diameter of my brain to arbitrary precision could then determine the truth value of every arithmetical statement. Of course, this might turn out not to be compatible with the details of our laws of nature—it may be that arbitrary precision is unachievable—but it is not incompatible with materialism as such.

Objection 2: In these kinds of scenarios, we wouldn’t know that the plaques are right.

Response: After verifying a large number of plaques to be correct, and finding none that we could tell are incorrect, it would be reasonable to conclude by induction that they are all right. However, if the plaques are in fact due to random processes, this inductive conclusion wouldn’t constitute knowledge, except on some versions of reliabilism (which seem implausible to me). But it could be a law of nature that the plaques are right—that’s compatible with materialism. In any case, here the discussion gets complicated.

Humean accounts of modality

Humean accounts of modality, like Sider’s, work as follows. We first take some privileged truths, including all the mathematical ones, and an appropriate collection of others (e.g., ones about natural kind membership or the fundamental truths of metaphysics). And then we stipulate that to be necessary is to follow from the collection of privileged truths, and the possible that whose negation isn’t necessary.

Here is a problem. We need to be able to say things like this:

1. Necessarily it’s possible that 2+2=4.

For that to be the case, then:

2. It’s possible that 2+2=4

has to follow from the privileged truths. But on the theory under consideration, (2) means:

3. That 2 + 2 ≠ 4 does not follow from the privileged truths.

So, (3) has to follow from the privileged truths. Now, how could it do that? Suppose first that the privileged truths include only the mathematical ones. Then (3) has to be a mathematical truth: for only mathematical truths follow logically from mathematical truths. But this means that “the privileged truths”, i.e., “the mathematical truths”, has to have a mathematical description. For instance, there has to be a set or proper class of mathematical truths. But that “the mathematical truths” has a mathematical description is a direct violation of Tarski’s Indefinability of Truth theorem, which is a variant of Goedel’s First Incompleteness Theorem.

So we need more truths than the mathematical ones to be among the privileged ones, enough that (3) should follow from them. But it unlikely that any of the privileged truths proposed by the proponents of Humean accounts of modality will do the job with respect to (3). Even the weaker claim:

4. That 2 + 2 ≠ 4 does not follow from the mathematical truths

seems hard to get from the normally proposed privileged truths. (It’s not mathematical, it’s not natural kind membership, it’s not a fundamental truth of metaphysics, etc.)

Consider this. The notion of “follows from” in this context is a formal mathematical notion. (Otherwise, it’s an undefined modal term, rendering the account viciously circular.) So facts about what does or does not follow from some truths seem to be precisely mathematical truths. One natural way to make sense of (4) is to say that there is a privileged truth that says that some set T is the set of mathematical truths, and then suppose there is a mathematical truth that 2 + 2 ≠ 4 does not follow from T. But a set of mathematical truths violates Indefinability of Truth.

Perhaps, though, we can just add to the privileged truths some truths about what does and does not follow from the privileged truths. In particular, the privileged truths will contain, or it will easily follow from them, the truth that they are mutually consistent. But now the privileged truths become self-referential in a way that leads to contradiction. For instance:

5. No x such that F(x) follows from the privileged truths.

will make sense for any F, and we can choose a predicate F such that it is provable that (5) is the only thing that satisfies F (cf. Goedel’s diagonal lemma). Now, if (5) follows from the privileged truths, then it also follows from the privileged truths that (5) doesn’t follow from the privileged truths, and hence that the privileged truths are inconsistent. Thus, from the fact that the privileged truths are consistent, which itself is a privileged truth or a consequence thereof, one can prove (5) doesn’t follow from the privileged truths, and hence that (5) is true, which is absurd.

Anti-S5

Suppose narrowly logical necessity L_L is provability from some recursive consistent set of axioms and narrowly logical possibility M_L is consistency with that set of axioms. Then Goedel’s Second Incompleteness Theorem implies the following weird anti-S5 axiom:

• ∼L_LM_Lp for every statement p.

In particular, the S5 axiom M_Lp → L_LM_Lp holds only in the trivial case where M_Lp is false.

For suppose we have L_LM_Lp. Then M_Lp has a proof. But M_Lp is equivalent to ∼L_Lp. However, we can show that ∼L_Lp implies the consistency of the axioms: for if the axioms are not consistent, then by explosion they prove p and hence L_Lp holds. Thus, if L_L∼L_Lp, then ∼L_Lp can be proved, and hence consistency can be proved, contrary to Second Incompleteness.

The anti-S5 axiom is equivalent to the axiom:

• M_LL_Lp.

In particular, every absurdity—even 0≠0—could be necessary.

I wonder if there is any other modality satisfying anti-S5.

Logicism and Goedel

Famously, Goedel’s incompleteness theorems refuted (naive) logicism, the view that mathematical truth is just provability.

But one doesn’t need all of the technical machinery of the incompleteness theorems to refute that. All one needs is Goedel’s simple but powerful insight that proofs are themselves mathematical objects—sequence of symbols (an insight emphasized by Goedel numbering). For once we see that, then the logicist view is that what makes a mathematical proposition true is that a certain kind of mathematical object—a proof—exists. But the latter claim is itself a mathematical claim, and so we are off on a vicious regress.

Provability from finite and infinite theories

Let #s be the Goedel number of s. The following fact is useful for thinking about the foundations of mathematics:

Proposition. There is a finite fragment A of Peano Arithmetic such that if T is a recursively axiomatizable theory, then there is an arithmetical formula P_T(n) such that for all arithmetical sentences s, A → P_T(#s) is a theorem of FOL if and only if T proves s.

The Proposition allows us to replace the provability of a sentence from an infinite recursive theory by the provability of a sentence from a finite theory.

Sketch of Proof of Proposition. Let M be a Turing machine that given a sentence as an input goes through all possible proofs from T and halts if it arrives at one that is a proof of the given sentence.

We can encode a history of a halting (and hence finite) run of M as a natural number such that there will be a predicate H_M(m, n) and a finite fragment A of Peano Arithmetic independent of M (I expect that Robinson arithmetic will suffice) such that (a) m is a history of a halting run of M with input m if and only if H_M(m, n) and (b) for all m and n, A proves whether H_M(m, n).

Now, let P_T(n) be ∃mH_M(m, n). Then A proves P_T(#s) if and only if there is an m₀ such that A proves H_M(m₀, n). (If A proves P_T(#s), then because A is true, there is an m such that H_M(m, #s), and then A will prove H_M(m₀, #s). Conversely, if A proves H_M(m₀, #s), then it proves ∃mH_M(m, #s).) And so A proves P_T(#s) if and only if T proves s.

A bad idea in the foundations of mathematics

The relativity of FOL-validity is the fact that whether a sentence ϕ of First Order Logic is valid (equivalently, provable from no axioms beyond any axioms of FOL itself) sometimes depends on the axioms of set theory, once we encode validity arithmetically as per Goedel.

More concretely, if Zermelo-Fraenkel-Choice (ZFC) set theory is consistent, then there is an FOL formula ϕ that is FOL-provable according to some but not other models of ZFC. So which model of ZFC should real provability be relativized to?

Here is a putative solution that occurred to me today:

• Say that ϕ is really provable if and only if there is a model M of ZFC such that according to M, ϕ has a proof.

If this solution works, then the relativity of proof is quite innocent: it doesn’t matter in which model of ZFC our proofs live, because proofs in any ZFC model do the job for us.

It follows from incompleteness (cf. the link above) that real provability is strictly weaker than provability, assuming ZFC is true and consistent. Therefore, some really provable ϕ will fail to be valid, and hence there will be models of the falsity of ϕ. The idea that one can really prove a ϕ such that there is a model of the falsity of ϕ seems to me to show that my proposed notion of “really provable” is really confused.

Post-Goedelian mathematics as an empirical inquiry

Once one absorbs the lessons of the Goedel incompleteness theorems, a formalist view of mathematics as just about logical relationships such as provability becomes unsupportable (for me the strongest indication of this is the independence of logical validity). Platonism thereby becomes more plausible (but even Platonism is not unproblematic, because mathematical Platonism tends towards plenitude, and given plenitude it is difficult to identify which natural numbers we mean).

But there is another way to see post-Goedelian mathematics, as an empirical and even experimental inquiry into the question of what can be proved by beings like us. While the abstract notion of provability is subject to Goedelian concerns, the notion of provability by beings like us does not seem to be, because it is not mathematically formalizable.

We can mathematically formalize a necessary condition for something to be proved by us which we can call “stepwise validity”: each non-axiomatic step follows from the preceding steps by such-and-such formal rules. To say that something can be proved by beings like us, then, would be to say that beings like us can produce (in speech or writing or some other relevantly similar medium) a stepwise valid sequence of steps that starts with the axioms and ends with the conclusion. This is a question about our causal powers of linguistic production, and hence can be seen as empirical.

Perhaps the surest way to settle the question of provability by beings like us is for us to actually produce the stepwise valid sequence of steps, and check its stepwise validity. But in practice mathematicians usually don’t: they skip obvious steps in the sequence. In doing so, they are producing a meta-argument that makes it plausible that beings like us could produce the stepwise valid sequence if they really wanted to.

This might seem to lead to a non-realist view of mathematics. Whether it does so depends, however, on our epistemology. If in fact provability by beings like us tracks metaphysical necessity—i.e., if B is provable by beings like us from A₁, ..., A_n, then it is not possible to have A₁, ..., A_n without B—then by means of provability by beings like us we discover metaphysical necessities.

Socratic perfection is impossible

Socrates thought it was important that if you didn't know something, you knew you didn't know it. And he thought that it was important to know what followed from what. Say that an agent is Socratically perfect provided that (a) for every proposition p that she doesn't know, she knows that she doesn't know p, and (b) her knowledge is closed under entailment.

Suppose Sally is Socratically perfect and consider:

1. Sally doesn’t know the proposition expressed by (1).

If Sally knows the proposition expressed by (1), then (1) is true, and so Sally doesn’t know the proposition expressed by (1). Contradiction!

If Sally doesn’t know the proposition expressed by (1), then she knows that she doesn’t know it. But that she doesn’t know the proposition expressed by (1) just is the proposition expressed by (1). So Sally doesn’t know the proposition expressed by (1). So Sally knows the proposition expressed by (1). Contradiction!

So it seems it is impossible to have a Socratically perfect agent.

(Technical note: A careful reader will notice that I never used closure of Sally’s knowledge. That’s because (1) involves dubious self-reference, and to handle that rigorously, one needs to use Goedel’s diagonal lemma, and once one does that, the modified argument will use closure.)

But what about God? After all, God is Socratically perfect, since he knows all truths. Well, in the case of God, knowledge is equivalent to truth, so (1)-type sentences just are liar sentences, and so the problem above just is the liar paradox. Alternately, maybe the above argument works for discursive knowledge, while God’s knowledge is non-discursive.

Epistemic scores and consistency

Scoring rules measure the distance between a credence and the truth value, where true=1 and false=0. You want this distance to be as low as possible.

Here’s a fun paradox. Consider this sentence:

1. At t₁, my credence for (1) is less than 0.1.

(If you want more rigor, use Goedel’s diagonalization lemma to remove the self-reference.) It’s now a moment before t₁, and I am trying to figure out what credence I should assign to (1) at t₁. If I assign a credence less than 0.1, then (1) will be true, and the epistemic distance between 0.1 and 1 will be large on any reasonable scoring rule. So, I should assign a credence greater than or equal to 0.1. In that case, (1) will be false, and I want to minimize the epistemic distance between the credence and 0. I do that by letting the credence be exactly 0.1.

So, I should set my credence to be exactly 0.1 to optimize epistemic score. Suppose, however, that at t₁ I will remember with near-certainty that I was setting my credence to 0.1. Thus, at t₁ I will be in a position to know with near-certainty that my credence for (1) is not less than 0.1, and hence I will have evidence showing with near-certainty that (1) is false. And yet my credence for (1) will be 0.1. Thus, my credential state at t₁ will be probabilistically inconsistent.

Hence, there are times when optimizing epistemic score leads to inconsistency.

There are, of course, theorems on the books that optimizing epistemic score requires consistency. But the theorems do not apply to cases where the truth of the matter depends on your credence, as in (1).

"The" natural numbers

Benacerraf famously pointed out that there are infinitely many isomorphic mathematical structures that could equally well be the referrent of “the natural numbers”. Mathematicians are generally not bothered by this underdetermination of the concept of “the natural numbers”, precisely because the different structures are isomorphic.

What is more worrying are the infinitely many elementarily inequivalent mathematical structures that, it seems, could count as “the natural numbers”. (This becomes particularly worrying given that we’ve learned from Goedel that these structures give rise to different notions of provability.)

(I suppose this is a kind of instance of the Kripke-Wittgenstein puzzles.)

In response, here is a start of a story. Those claims about the natural numbers that differ in truth value between models are vague. We can then understand this vagueness epistemically or in some more beefy way.

An attractive second step is to understand it epistemically, and then say that God connects us up with his preferred class of equivalent models of the naturals.

Logical closure accounts of necessity

A family of views of necessity (e.g., Peacocke, Sider, Swinburne, and maybe Chalmers) identifies a family F of special true statements that get counted as necessary—say, statements giving the facts about the constitution of natural kinds, the axioms of mathematics, etc.—and then says that a statement is necessary if and only if it can be proved from F. Call these “logical closure accounts of necessity”. There are two importantly different variants: on one “F” is a definite description of the family and on the other “F” is a name for the family.

Here is a problem. Consider:

1. Statement (1) cannot be proved from F.

If you are worried about the explicit self-reference in (1), I should be able to get rid of it by a technique similar to the diagonal lemma in Goedel’s incompleteness theorem. Now, either (1) is true or it’s false. If it’s false, then it can be proved from F. Since F is a family of truths, it follows that a falsehood can be proved from truths, and that would be the end of the world. So it’s true. Thus it cannot be proved from F. But if it cannot be proved from F, then it is contingently true.

Thus (1) is true but there is a possible world w where (1) is false. In that world, (1) can be proved from F, and hence in that world (1) is necessary. Hence, (1) is false but possibly necessary, in violation of the Brouwer Axiom of modal logic (and hence of S5). Thus:

2. Logical closure accounts of necessity require the denial of the Brouwer Axiom and S5.

But things get even worse for logical closure accounts. For an account of necessity had better itself not be a contingent truth. Thus, a logical closure account of necessity if true in the actual world will also be true in w. Now in w run the earlier argument showing that (1) is true. Thus, (1) is true in w. But (1) was false in w. Contradiction! So:

3. Logical closure accounts of necessity can at best be contingently true.

Objection: This is basically the Liar Paradox.

Response: This is indeed my main worry about the argument. I am hoping, however, that it is more like Goedel’s Incompleteness Theorems than like the Liar Paradox.

Here's how I think the hope can be satisfied. The Liar Paradox and its relatives arise from unbounded application of semantic predicates like “is (not) true”. By “unbounded”, I mean that one is free to apply the semantic predicates to any sentence one wishes. Now, if F is a name for a family of statements, then it seems that (1) (or its definite description variant akin to that produced by the diagonal lemma) has no semantic vocabulary in it at all. If F is a description of a family of statements, there might be some semantic predicates there. For instance, it could be that F is explicitly said to include “all true mathematical claims” (Chalmers will do that). But then it seems that the semantic predicates are bounded—they need only be applied in the special kinds of cases that come up within F. It is a central feature of logical closure accounts of necessity that the statements in F be a limited class of statements.

Well, not quite. There is still a possible hitch. It may be that there is semantic vocabulary built into “proved”. Perhaps there are rules of proof that involve semantic vocabulary, such as Tarski’s T-schema, and perhaps these rules involve unbounded application of a semantic predicate. But if so, then the notion of “proof” involved in the account is a pretty problematic one and liable to license Liar Paradoxes.

One might also worry that my argument that (1) is true explicitly used semantic vocabulary. Yes: but that argument is in the metalanguage.

A problem for Goedelian ontological arguments

Goedelian ontological arguments (e.g., mine) depend on axioms of positivity. Crucially to the argument, these axioms entail that any two positive properties are compatible (i.e., something can have both).

But I now worry whether it is true that any two positive properties are compatible. Let w₀ be our world—where worlds encompass all contingent reality. Then, plausibly, actualizing w₀ is a positive property that God actually has. But now consider another world, w₁, which is no worse than ours. Then actualizing w₁ is a positive property, albeit one that God does not actually have. But it is impossible that a being actualize both w₀ and w₁, since worlds encompass all contingent reality and hence it is impossible for two of them to be actual. (Of course, God can create two or more universes, but then a universe won’t encompass all contingent reality.) Thus, we have two positive properties that are incompatible.

Another example. Let E be the ovum and S₁ the sperm from which Socrates originated. There is another possible world, w₂, at which E and a different sperm, S₂, results in Kassandra, a philosopher every bit as good and virtuous as Socrates. Plausibly, being friends with Socrates is a positive property. And being friends with Kassandra is a positive property. But also plausibly there is no possible world where both Socrates and Kassandra exist, and you can’t be friends with someone who doesn’t exist (we can make that stipulative). So, being friends with Socrates and being friends with Kassandra are incompatible and yet positive.

I am not completely confident of the counterexamples. But if they do work, then the best fix I know for the Goedelian arguments is to restrict the relevant axioms to strongly positive properties, where a property is strongly positive just in case having the property essentially is positive. (One may need some further tweaks.) Essentially actualizing w₀ limits one from being able to actualize anything else, and hence isn’t positive. Likewise, essentially being friends with Socrates limits one to existing only in worlds where Socrates does, and hence isn’t positive. But, alas, the argument becomes more complicated and hence less plausible with the modification.

Another fix might be to restrict attention to positive non-relational properties, but I am less confident that that will work.

Are there multiple models of the naturals that are "on par"?

Assuming the Peano Axioms of arithmetic are consistent, we know that there are infinitely many sets that satisfy them. Which of these infinitely many sets is the set of natural numbers?

A plausible tempting answer is: “It doesn’t matter—any one of them will do.”

But that’s not right. For the infinitely many sets each of which is a model of the Peano Axioms are not isomorphic. They disagree with each other on arithmetical questions. (Famously, one of the models “claims” that the Peano Axioms are consistent and another “claims” that they are inconsistent, where we know from Goedel that consistency is equivalent to an arithmetical question.)

So it seems that with regard to the Peano Axioms, the models are all on par, and yet they disagree.

Here’s a point, however, that is known to specialists, but not widely recognized (e.g., I only recognized the point recently). When one says that some set M is a model of the Peano Axioms, one isn’t saying quite as much as the non-expert might think. Admittedly, one is saying that for every Peano Axiom A, A is true according to M (i.e., M⊨A). But one is not saying that according to M all the Peano Axioms are true. One must be careful with quantifiers. The statement:

1. For every Peano Axiom A, according to M, A is true.

is different from:

2. According to M, all the Peano Axioms are true.

The main technical reason there is such a difference is that (2) is actually nonsense, because the truth predicate in (2) is ineliminable and cannot be defined in M, while the truth predicate in (1) is eliminable; we are just saying that for any Peano Axiom A, M⊨A.

There is an important philosophical issue here. The Peano Axiomatization includes the Axiom Schema of Induction, which schema has infinitely many formulas as instances. Whether a given sequence of symbols is an instance of the Axiom Schema of Induction is a syntactic matter that can be defined arithmetically in terms of the Goedel encoding of the sequence. Thus, it makes sense to say that some sequence of symbols is a Peano Axiom according to a model M, i.e., that according to M, its Goedel number satisfies a certain arithmetical formula, I(x).

Now, non-standard models of the naturals—i.e., models other than our “normal” model—will contain infinite naturals. Some of these infinite naturals will intuitively correspond, via Goedel encoding, to infinite strings of symbols. In fact, given a non-standard model M of the naturals, there will be infinite strings of symbols that according to M are Peano Axioms—i.e., there will be an infinite string s of symbols such that its Goedel number g_s is such that I(g_s). But then we have no way to make sense of the statement: “s is true according to M” or M⊨s. For truth-in-a-model is defined only for finite strings of symbols.

Thus, there is an intuitive difference between the standard model of the naturals and non-standard models:

1. The standard model N is such that all the numbers that according to N satisfy I(x) correspond to formulas that are true in N.

2. A non-standard model M is not such that all the numbers that according to M satisfy I(x) correspond to formulas that are true in M.

The reason for this difference is that the notion of “true in M” is only defined for finite formulas, where “finite” is understood according to the standard model.

I do not know how exactly to rescue the idea of many inequivalent models of arithmetic that are all on par.

Numerical experimentation and truth in mathematics

Is mathematics about proof or truth?

Sometimes mathematicians perform numerical experiments with computers. Goldbach’s Conjecture says that every even integer n greater than two is the sum of two primes. Numerical experiments have been performed that verified that this is true for every even integer from 4 to 4 × 10¹⁸.

Let G(n) be the statement that n is the sum of two primes, and let’s restrict ourselves to talking about even n greater than two. So, we have evidence that:

1. For an impressive sample of values of n, G(n) is true.

This gives one very good inductive evidence that:

2. For all n, G(n) is true.

And hence:

3. It is true that: for all n, G(n). I.e., Goldbach’s Conjecture is true.

Can we say a similar thing about provability? The numerical experiments do indeed yield a provability analogue of (1):

4. For an impressive sample of values of n, G(n) is provable.

For if G(n) is true, then G(n) is provable. The proof would proceed by exhibiting the two primes that add up to n, checking their primeness and proving that they add up to n, all of which can be done. We can now inductively conclude the analogue of (2):

5. For all n, G(n) is provable.

But here is something interesting. While we can swap the order of the “For all n” and the “is true” operator in (2) and obtain (3), it is logically invalid to swap the order of the “For all n” and the “is provable” operator (5) to obtain:

6. It is provable that: for all n, G(n). I.e., Goldbach’s Conjecture is provable.

It is quite possible to have a statement such that (a) for every individual n it is provable, but (b) it is not provable that it holds for every n. (Take a Goedel sentence g that basically says “I am not provable”. For each positive integer n, let H(n) be the statement that n isn’t the Goedel number of a proof of g. Then if g is in fact true, then for each n, H(n) is provably true, since whether n encodes a proof of g is a matter of simple formal verification, but it is not provable that for all n, H(n) is true, since then g would be provable.)

Now, it is the case that (5) is evidence for (6). For there is a decent chance that if Goldbach’s conjecture is true, then it is provable. But we really don’t have much of a handle on how big that “decent chance” is, so we lose a lot of probability when we go from the inductively verified (5) to (6).

In other words, if we take the numerical experiments to give us lots of confidence in something about Goldbach’s conjecture, then that something is truth, not provability.

Furthermore, even if we are willing to tolerate the loss of probability in going from (5) to (6), the most compelling probabilistic route from (5) to (6) seems to take a detour through truth: if G(n) is provable for each n, then Goldbach’s Conjecture is true, and if it’s true, it’s probably provable.

So the practice of numerical experimentation supports the idea that mathematics is after truth. This is reminiscent to me of some arguments for scientific realism.