- (Premise) Every lie is an assertion.
- (Premise) Every assertion is a speech act.
- (Premise) Some gestures are lies.
- Therefore, some gestures are assertions.
- Therefore, some gestures are speech acts.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Gestures and speech acts
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Analemmatic sundial
This will make a nice educational project to do with kids. Here are complete instructions.
You can then draw it in chalk on a driveway (and then maybe paint it permanently), and then stand on the correct date (along the vertical center line) with your body being the gnomon. Or you can just print out the design on a piece of paper, point it correctly, and hold a pencil upright on the correct date (along the vertical center line) to get the time. You can even use it as a solar compass if you know what time it is. You hold the pencil upright on the correct date, rotate the sundial until it shows the correct time, and use the "N" arrow.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Theists can't be anti-libertarians
Strictly speaking, one could be a libertarian and a weak anti-libertarian. But it would be odd. As a weak anti-libertarian, one would say something like this: When I am choosing between two equiprobable options, I am not free. It's just chance how I choose. When I am choosing between an option A whose probability is greater than 1/2 and another option B, I may be free if I choose A, but I won't be free if I choose B. And that would be a weird thing for a libertarian to say.
Theists should be neither weak nor strong anti-libertarians. Consider these two plausible premises:
- Necessarily, whatever God chooses, he chooses freely.
- God made at least one choice that it was possible for him to have made otherwise.
[Edited to reflect my view that all choices are free. -ARP]
Monday, August 15, 2011
Implicature and lying
Philosophers say things like: "Asserting 'There is no conclusive proof that Smith is a plagiarist' implicates that there is a genuine possibility of Smith's being a plagiarist." (And yet taken literally "There is no conclusive proof that Smith is a plagiarist" is true even if no one ever suspected Smith of plagiarism.) However what one implicates not only has propositional content, but also illocutionary force, and both both the content and the force are implicated. So if we want to be more explicit, we should say something like: "Asserting 'There is no conclusive proof that Smith is a plagiarist' implicates the suggestion (or insinuation or even assertion) that there is a genuine possibility of Smith's being a plagiarist." Which of the forces--suggestion, insinuation or assertion--is the right one to choose is going to be a hard question to determine. Maybe there is vagueness (ugh!) here. In any case, we don't just implicate propositions--we implicate whole speech acts. A question can implicate an assertion and an assertion a question ("It would be really nice if you would tell me whether...").
I used to wonder whether the moral rules governing lying (which I think are very simple, namely that it is always wrong to lie, but I won't be assuming that) extend to false implicature. I now realize that the question is somewhat ill-formed. The moral rules governing lying are tied specifically to assertions, not to requests or commands. One can implicate an assertion, but one can also implicate other kinds of speech acts, and it only makes sense to ask whether the moral rules governing lying extend to false implicature when what is implicated is an assertion or assertion-like.
And I now think there is a very simple answer to the question. The moral rules governing lying do directly extend to implicated assertions. But just as these moral rules do not directly extend to other assertion-like explicit speech acts, such as musing, so too they do not directly extend to other assertion-like implicated speech acts, such as suggesting. The rules governing an implicated suggestion are different from the rules governing an explicit assertion not because the implicated suggestion is implicated, but because the implicate suggestion is a suggestion. If it were an explicit suggestion, it would be governed by the same rules.
That said, there are certain speech acts which are more commonly implicated than made explicitly--suggestion is an example--and there may even be speech acts, like insinuation (Jon Kvanvig has impressed on me the problematic nature of "I insinuate that...") that don't get to be performed explicitly (though I don't know that they can't be; even "I insinuate that..." might turn out to be a very subtle kind of insinuation in some weird context).
I think the distinction between the explicit speech act and the implicated speech act does not mark a real joint in nature. The real joint in nature is not between, say, explicit and implicated assertion, but between, say, assertion and suggestion (regardless of which, if any, is explicit or implicated). Fundamental philosophy of communication does not, I think, need the distinction between the explicit speech act and the implicated speech act. That distinction is for the linguists--it concerns the mechanics of communication (just as the distinction between written and spoken English, or between French and German) rather than its fundamental nature.
Use and mention
I was editing a paper I'm writing with a colleague, and I came on this phrase:
we will draw out the details of the Specific Analogy Thesis (SAT).It turns out that the acronym "SAT" never gets used anywhere else in the paper. Question: Was it used in the displayed phrase, or was it merely mentioned? I am inclined to think that either it was only mentioned, or it was both used and mentioned. In any case, we have a nice case here where grammar allows mention without either quotation marks or switch of typeface. It looks like apposition is another marker for mentioning, especially where capital letters are used.
Now, consider this sentence as we might find it in a paper on Spinoza: "Spinoza's Independence Thesis is the controversial claim that substances are completely independent beings." Suppose that this sentence contains the first use or mention of "Independence Thesis." The sentence introduces the term "Spinoza's Independence Thesis" into the language of the paper. But the sentence is also an assertion--among other things, the writer is asserting about Spinoza's Independence Thesis that it is controversial. In the sentence qua assertion, "Spinoza's Independence Thesis" is being used. But in addition to the writer's making an assertion, the writer is performing another speech act, the speech act of stipulating a term. Maybe the way to look at it is this: one asserts of Spinoza's Independence Thesis that it is the controversial claim that substances are completely independent beings, while implicating the stipulation that "Spinoza's Independence Thesis" denotes the claim that substances are completely independent beings (note that "controversial" is present in the assertion but not the definition). Or perhaps we should say that both the assertion and stipulation are there in the sentence with equal rights.
Sunday, August 14, 2011
A sufficient condition for not intending
- All my active reasons in favor of my acting as I did in doing A could have been operative for me, and to at least as great a degree, had I not foreseen that p.
Friday, August 12, 2011
More remarks on the logic of commands and permissions
So an invalid order can result in a permission. Consider another case. Your Department Cchair hands you her cellphone and tells you to phone me and humiliate me. Suppose there is no sufficient justification for humiliating me. That's an invalid order, since she can't validly command you to wrong me. Suppose you do what you're told nonetheless. You wrong me, then, and maybe even wrong your chair by making her be responsible for a bad outcome. But you can't be accused of using her phone without her permission.
Notice, though, that in both of these two cases, the permission issued comes "labeled" with a different role than the putative order does. The Department chair putatively orders you to use her cellphone as chair. But she permits you to use her cellphone as a private individual (I assume it's her private phone). As chair, she has no right to permit the use of any private individual's cellphone. Likewise, I pretend to order you to blow up the car as your commanding officer, but the permission comes from me as a private individual--it can't come from me as your commanding officer because I am not your commanding officer.
So, typically, a command, valid or invalid, issued by an individual x under some role R results in permission by x in x's role as a private individual. But not always, not even in the case of a valid order. "The colonel has ordered you to blow up my private car. I hereby, acting under protest, order you to blow up my private car." In this case, I didn't give you permission as a private individual to blow up my private car, which has the normative consequence that I may be entitled to compensation from the service for the unpermitted destruction of my property.
This means that the issuing of permission as a private individual needs to be logically separated from giving an order under some other role R. Normally, by giving an order in an official capacity I implicate private permission, but this implicature can be canceled, say by an "acting under protest" qualifier.
But now we have an interesting question: Likewise, normally by giving an order in role R, I also permit the commanded thing in role R. Is the connection here just a matter of contingent implicature, so that (a) even if the order is invalid, the permission remains, and (b) the order can be validly given without the permission?
The answers to both questions are negative, I think.
First take (a). The most obvious counterexample. I impersonate a commanding officer and order you to shell an enemy installation. I invalidly command as your commanding officer, but you do not thereby receive your commanding officer's permission, since I am not your commanding officer. Maybe, though, (a) is true in the special case where the putatively commanding party actually fills the role? I don't think so. Suppose that as a an American sergeant I order my men to initiate war against Canada. Do my men have sergeant permission to make war on Canada? Certainly not: initiating a war exceeds the authority of a sergeant both in respect of command and in respect of permission, and there is no such thing as sergeant permission to make war on Canada--there may be such a thing as presidential permission to make war, but surely not sergeant permission. So R-permission doesn't follow automatically from an invalid R-command.
Now take (b). Can one give a valid order in role R without giving a permission in role R? I think not. I don't have a very precise argument, but the basic idea seems to be something like the following (adapting stuff I heard from Mark Murphy). By attempting to give in role R an order to A, I am attempting to create a normative situation where you have reason in light of your authority connection with R to A. Creating such a normative situation requires the wiping away of any relevantly R-connected reasons not to A that I can wipe away qua occupier of R. Without that wiping away, there is no attempt to create the right kind of normative situation, and hence there is no valid order given. Besides, I can't think of a counterexample to the claim that valid R-command entails valid R-permission.
So the relevant deontic statuses can be rather logically complex. As CEO, I order you to build a bridge. You seek all the relevant legally required permissions. I didn't realize this when I gave the order, but the bridge is close enough to my house that vibration from the construction would endanger my china collection. Suppose the law requires permission from all private individuals affected by vibration from construction and you failed to seek my permission. Because I didn't know about the issue, you can't just presume on my private permission, but you do presume, and my china is destroyed. Then you didn't wrong me qua CEO, but you did wrong me qua private citizen.
Suppose, however, that the law allows you to build as long as you get permission from nine tenths of the citizens affected by any particular kind of harmful effect. You get permission from the other nine tenths of the relevant citizens, so you don't bother to ask me. Assuming that I am validly under the authority of this law, and that the law is just, it may well be that you haven't wronged me. But neither have I permitted the damage to my china. So you're permitted vis-à-vis me-qua-private-individual to cause the vibration, but you do not have my permission as a private individual to cause the vibration--rather, the law gave you the permission.
Suppose that the vibration causes both property damage and health damage, and that the law requires everyone's permission in respect of health damage, but only nine-tenths' majority permission in respect of property damage. Then by causing the vibration you (i) don't wrong me qua CEO; (ii) do something not permitted vis-à-vis me-qua-private-individual in respect of health damage; and (iii) have the relevant permissions vis-à-vis me-qua-private-individual in respect of property damage.
There are, no doubt, neater ways of spelling out these normative statuses.
Remarks on the logic of commanding and permitting
Disjunctions
If I command you to do something, I thereby permit you to do it. But suppose I command you to do A or B or both. Then it seems that not only do I permit the disjunction, but I also permit each disjunct.
It is, I think, necessary that if I command you to do something, I also permit you to do it. Working out why exactly would be interesting.
But I do not think it is necessary that if I command you to do A or B or both, then I permit you to do A and I permit you to do B. Imagine a case where you are under all sorts of orders that I have no authority to override and which I do not know all of, but I know that you're not both prohibited from doing A and from doing B. I might then say: "Do A or B or both. Of course, stay within the scope of your other orders." If one of your other orders is never to do B, you can't say that my disjunctive command permitted you to do B. If this is right, then it's not part of the fundamental logic of commanding and permitting that by commanding a disjunction one permits the disjuncts.
Interesting question. Is it ever morally licit to issue the command to do A or B or both, when B is morally illicit? It is, I take it, always wrong to command or permit something wrong (I distinguish permission proper from waiving punishment). If commanding a disjunction always involves permitting the disjuncts, it follows that one may not licitly command a disjunction when one of the disjuncts in it is wrong. But if it is possible to command the disjunction without permitting each disjunct, then it may be licit to command a disjunction one disjunct of which is wrong, though not a disjunction both disjuncts of which are wrong. We can imagine a situation where very bad things will happen (to you and to your subordinates) if you refuse to issue an order you were commanded to issue, and the order is to do A or B or both, and B is morally wrong. In that case, it may be licit to say: "I command you to do A or B or both. And I forbid you from doing B." You've fulfilled your order to the letter and haven't commanded or permitted anything wrong. Still, in ordinary contexts, commanding A or B or both carries the implicated (and still real) permission of doing A and of doing B and of doing both.
Conjunctions
Suppose now I command you to do both A and B. Interestingly, while it does follow that I permit you to do both A and B, it does not follow that I permit you to do A. I may only be permitting you to do A if you're going to do B as well. So commands are not closed under logical entailment. For if they were, then in commanding A and B, I would be commanding A, and hence also permitting A.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Reasons and intentions
- If an action has an intention, that intention is always a part of the full rational explanation of the action.
- Only facts that are identical with or grounded in the agent's reasons are found in a rational explanation of an action.
- Therefore, the intentions in an action are identical with or grounded in the agent's reasons for the action. ("The Grounding Claim")
The Grounding Claim is very abstract, but it has a concrete and controversial consequence:
- It is possible to have two agents who differ in the foreseen consequences of an action but who do not differ in intentions.
- Foresight is not the same as intention.
The challenge for a theory of intention, then, is to figure out in what way an agent's intentions are grounded in (or identical with) her reasons—how to read her intentions off from her reasons.
I don't know how to do that.
Antipastism
Antipastism would be the view that the past is unreal, but both the present and the future are. I asked my six-year-old son whether he thought the past was real. He was quite sure it wasn't. One of his reasons was that we can't get there. I then asked him if he thought the future was real. He was quite unsure either way. In other words, he vaccilated between presentism and antipastism.
This is interesting, because if presentists feel a pull away from their theory, I would expect that it would often be towards an open future view on which the past is real but the future is not.
Anyway, one can take my son's reasoning and formalize it into a plausibilistic argument:
- If you can get somewhere, it's probably real.
- You can get to the future. (It's easy, just wait a moment.)
- So the future is probably real.
In an earlier post, I called antipastism "Shrinking Block".
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Tough double effect cases
Here is a pair of cases that I find particularly difficult, however. This post owes things to a discussion I've been having with Daniel Hill.
Case 1: Matilda knows that a house contains two people, one an innocent and the other a terrorist. Matilda is flying over the house and can drop a bomb on it, and if she does so, both people will die. However, the terrorist will then be unable to detonate a bomb that would kill hundreds. Matilda has no other way of preventing the detonation of the bomb. Is it permissible for her to drop the bomb?
Case 2: This time Matilda is on the ground, and has a gun. The two residents of the house are in front of her. One of them is the innocent and the other is the terrorist. She can't tell which is which. The only way to prevent the detonation of the bomb is by killing the terrorist. (Why is wounding not good enough? Maybe from her position, she can only aim for the head, and so she'll either kill or miss.) Is it permissible for her to shoot both?
The first case seems to be just like the standard double effect case of tactical bombing where if you drop the bomb on the enemy HQ, innocent visitors to the HQ (e.g., spouses of officers), will also die. It is hard to distinguish Case 2 from Case 1, since it doesn't seem like it should morally matter whether one drops one bomb or takes two shots. But the action in Case 2 seems wrong if you have strong deontological intuitions. It sure seems like you're intentionally killing two people, where you know that one of them (but you do not know which--and that may change things) is an innocent.
So the challenge for the defender of double effect reasoning is to either show in a morally compelling way how Case 2 differs from Case 1, or show that the intuitions that the shooting in Case 2 is wrong are mistaken.
I will try for the first, but I don't know how morally compelling my story will be. I think it will only be compelling to those who find double effect reasoning compelling. Still I hope the story will have some plausibility. Let the two people in the house be Susan and Tricia. Matilda's intention in Case 1 is that the terrorist in the house die. By what means? By means of the place where the terrorist is being seared by an explosion. Matilda need have no intention in Case 1 regarding the non-terrorist, or regarding Susan qua Susan or Tricia qua Tricia. Her intention is explicitly about the terrorist as such.
Now consider Case 2. Suppose Matilda has Susan in her gunsights and squeezes the trigger. What are Matilda's reasons for so doing? The most plausible account seems to be something like this: "Susan may be a terrorist, and if so, then many lives will be saved by her death, so I will shoot her." In other words, the plan of action seems to be: "Shoot Susan dead, so that if she is the terrorist, the terrorist is dead." If that's the plan of action, then Matilda is (literally) aiming to kill Susan. And by the same token, Matilda is aiming to kill Tricia. Therefore, Matilda is intending the death of two persons, one of whom she knows to be an innocent. She knows, thus, that in her overall action plan there is an innocent whose death she is aiming at. And that is wrong.
Elsewhere, I have speculated that there are some actions that are only permissible with certain intentions. For instance, perhaps it is only permissible to assert with the intention of avoiding the assertion of a falsehood and perhaps sexual relations are only permissible with the intention of uniting maritally. It now seems quite plausible to me that intentional killing is like that. To kill someone intentionally and permissibly it is not enough that one believe that the person is an aggressor (or is probably an aggressor?) that one is duly authorized to kill, or however exactly the exceptions on the prohibition of killing should be put. The soldier or police officer needs to kill because the person is an aggressor that one is duly authorized to kill. The Allied soldier who justly kills a German soldier must do so because the German soldier is an aggressor. If the Allied soldier, instead, solely kills Helmut because Helmut is German or because Helmut has a long nose or because target practice is fun, the Allied soldier is morally corrupt. (What if the Allied soldier kills Helmut both because Helmut is an aggressor and because Helmut is German? I think more detail will be needed about the deliberative structure here, and I want to bracket this case.)
Now, let us suppose that in fact Susan is the terrorist. Then Matilda in intentionally killing Susan is not killing Susan because Susan is a terrorist. Rather, Matilda is killing Susan because Susan might be a terrorist. And that is not good enough. The intention to kill someone because she is a terrorist is compatible with love of that person, since doing justice to someone is compatible with love, and sometimes required by love. But that is not Matilda's intention.
This has an interesting implication for military ethics. It is often said to be necessary for soldiers to dehumanize their enemy in order to kill, to see them as enemies rather than as people, and this is often seen as a criticism of the military enterprise. But if I am right, it is morally required that the soldier kill Helmut under a description that includes something like "enemy aggressor" rather than simply under the description "Helmut" or "that man over there, who no doubt has a family who are awaiting his return." Perhaps in the ideal the humanity of the enemy, and the fact that he has a family who are awaiting his return, does enter into how the action is done--with compassion, sadness and only as necessary for due defense of the innocent. But Helmut's aggressor status needs to be in the soldier's intentions.
But let us go back to Case 2. One might cleverly object that it need not in fact be Matilda's intention that Susan die (Daniel Hill queried me about such an idea). It could perhaps be Matilda's intention that Susan die if she is a terrorist. Now, it is certainly possible to have such intentions. If one has, or thinks one has, a magic bullet that kills only terrorists, one could shoot Susan intending that she die if she is a terrorist. In that case, one's means to the conditional end that Susan die if she is a terrorist is shooting a bullet that discriminates between terrorists and non-terrorists. But in the actual Case 2, one brings it about that Susan dies if she is a terrorist by bringing it about that Susan dies: the conditional end is brought about, in this case, by the unconditional means. So one still intends that Susan die, as a means to the conditional end that Susan die if she is a terrorist.
But what if Matilda is a clever double effect casuist, and says: "My intention is that a bullet should go through such and such a location in space, and that if there be the head of a terrorist in that location, that terrorist should die"? However, I think this is an incorrect statement of Susan's intentions. Intentions aren't inner speeches. They embody our actual reasons for acting. Matilda's reason for sending the bullet to that location in space is that she can see Susan's head there. Her plan for making sure that the terrorist in that location should die seems to be that Susan should die, and hence if the terrorist is there, the terrorist should die. Susan's death still seems to be a means to the death of the terrorist in that location, if there be one there. And likewise for Tricia's death. I am not completely happy about this story, but it has some plausibility.
In Case 1, however, the aim is less personal, and that does actually matter: the only death aimed at is the death of "the terrorist", under that definite description. Certainly, we would expect Matilda to be much more traumatized by Case 2 than by Case 1 (and if she weren't, we would think there is something wrong with her), and we should take such trauma to be defeasible evidence for a morally relevant difference between the two cases.
[Typo fixed.]
Christ's sacrifice and presentism
After it took place, Christ's sacrifice had never ceased to be a part of reality. But Christ's sacrifice did not continue to be always a part of the present. (Christ's sacrifice is present during the Mass, but there have been times, since Christ's crucifixion and resurrection, during which no Mass was being celebrated.) Hence, the present and reality are not coextensive.
Whether this contradicts presentism depends on what one makes of the imprecise predicates "is a part of reality" and "is a part of the present".
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Deep Thoughts XXXIII
Monday, August 8, 2011
A reliabilist moral argument for the truth of some religious belief
- (Premise) Evolutionary process P is the relevant process that produced both our religious and our moral beliefs.
- (Premise) If all religious beliefs are false, P is unreliable (since roughly half of the basic types of beliefs produced by P are then false).
- So, if all religious beliefs are false, then the relevant process that produced our moral beliefs is unreliable. (By 1 and 2)
- (Premise) Beliefs produced by an unreliable relevant process are not knowledge. (This is a consequence of reliabilism.)
- So, if all religious beliefs are false, we lack moral knowledge. (By 3 and 4 plus the analytic truth that knowledge requires belief.)
- (Premise) If moral realism is true, we have moral knowledge.
- So, if all religious beliefs are false, moral realism is false. (By 5 and 6)
- So, if moral realism is true, some religious beliefs are true. (By 7)
I think the naturalist reliabilist who wants to deny 8 will accept that P produced our religious and moral beliefs, but say that P is not the epistemologically relevant process. The relevant process is, perhaps, the sub-type of P which is the genetic or mimetic production of beliefs in moral claims in order to enhance social cooperation. I think this identification of the relevant sub-type is objectionably ad hoc.
Friday, August 5, 2011
Would it have been crazy to think everything is made of water?
But I think it was quite defensible before we got the successes of modern chemistry. And I want to sketch one line of thought why. I am not claiming that this line of thought was in fact Thales'. But it could have been: it won't rely on any science inaccessible to Thales. The line of thought has three steps.
Step 1. All liquids are the same substance.
Here is a line of thought towards this. Granted, obviously samples of liquids differ widely in shape, color, opacity, taste, wholesomeness, viscosity, miscibility, temperature and inebriativeness. But such variability does not challenge the claim that all liquids are in fact forms of the same substance. After all, apples differ widely in size, color, taste, wholesomeness and hardness, but they are all fundamentally apples. Moreover, samples of liquids apparently of the same sort can differ in most if not all of the above properties. The most obvious are shape and temperature: simply by varying the environment, the shape and temperature of a sample of a liquid can change. More interestingly, the opacity, taste and inebriativeness of grape juice changes over time. The viscosity and at least apparent miscibility of honey changes over time. The taste and wholesomeness of milk change significantly very quickly. It is a very reasonable hypothesis, then, that mere differences in these observable qualities do not correspond to a fundamental difference in kind, that the grape juice and the wine, or the milk and the yogurt, are one and the same liquid, despite significant differences in causal powers. But the differences between water and, say, milk or oil seem to be precisely differences in respect of qualities that do not make for different kind of thing.
The alternate hypothesis of explanation of the differences in properties between liquids, and that is that they have different ingredients rather than different properties. But there was good reason to doubt this alternate explanation. The significant changes happening in juice, milk and honey apparently do not require the introduction of any additional ingredients, nor the removal of any ingredients.
Step 2. All liquids are water.
If all the liquids are forms of the same kind of substance, we may want to figure out what the basic, generic or fundamental form of that substance is. And here water seems a very plausible choice. It is colorless, transparent, tasteless, devoid of medicinal effects except relief of thirst (which it shares with many other common liquids), non-viscous, quite miscible and non-inebriative. It is reasonable to suppose, for instance, that when water acquires the properties of whiteness, milky taste and a bit of viscosity, it becomes milk. One might wonder: how does one get water to acquire these properties? Well, a reasonable thing to say is that female goats make rainwater acquire milky properties. Certainly, when you stop the access to water, the goats stop making milk (and die).
Water, on this hypothesis, is the fundamental liquid, having the minimal set of properties needed for being a liquid, and when it acquires different properties, we call it by different names.
Step 3. Everything physical is water.
Step 3a. Everything solid is water.
Water can turn into a solid without anything being added to or substracted from it. One might think that "cold" is being added to it, but supposing cold as a substance may be questionable (though, less so to the Greeks than to us), and besides if cold had to be added to water in order to turn it into ice, it would follow that the formation of ice should reduce the amount of cold in the air. But the freezing of water does not appear to warm the surrounding air.
Furthermore, metallurgy shows that certain kinds of rocks can be turned into liquid, and then solidified into metals. Some varieties of mud, which appears to be a particularly viscous liquid, can be solidified into brick or ceramic. Sand can be melted into a clear liquid, and then solidified into glass. Since Step 2 hypothesized that all liquids are water, it becomes very plausible to generalize to the hypothesis that all solids are water, too, albeit with the property of solidity.
Step 3b. All gases are water.
When water is heated, it turns into steam, which looks like a cloudy form of air, and hence one can suppose that air is a kind of steam. Smoke comes from solid objects when these are on fire. Since solid objects are water by Step 3a, smoke is also water. It is reasonable to hypothesize that all gases are water.
Step 3c. Fire is water.
This is perhaps the toughest step, intuitively. Fire and water seem to be opposites. But one might hypothesize that when water is added to fire, the fiery qualities of the fire simply become diluted by the water. Steam is hot and burns, though it does not glow. Fire, thus, could be reasonably thought of as a particularly vivid kind of steam.
We can generalize from Steps 2-3c to conclude that everything physical is water.
Final remarks. On this highly speculative interpretation, Thales' thesis stands in sharp contrast to ingredient-based theories of the natural world, such as we have in modern Mendeleevian and ancient four-element chemistries. We do not need to posit differences in ingredients to explain differences between things. We generally don't posit differences in ingredients to explain differences in shape. So why should we posit them to explain differences in, say, color or taste?
Of course, if a particular ingredient-based theory comes to have significant predictive and explanatory power, Thales' thesis needs to be abandoned. I do not think the four-elements theory that some other ancients preferred was all that superior in predictive or explanatory power.
Mendeleevian chemistry, on the other hand, was far superior in predictive and explanatory power over either Thalesian or four-elements chemistry.