Friday, January 25, 2008

The Grim Reaper Paradox

Here is a version of the Grim Reaper paradox. Say that a Grim Reaper is a being that has the following properties: It wakes up at a time between 8 and 9 am, both exclusive, and if you're alive, it instantaneously kills you, and if you're not alive, it doesn't do anything.[note 1] Suppose there are countably infinitely many Grim Reapers, and before they go to bed for the night, each sets his alarm for a time (not necessarily the same time as the other Reapers) strictly between 8 and 9 am. Suppose, also, that no other kind of death is available for you, and that you're not going to be resurrected that day.

Then, you're going to be dead at 9 am, since as long as at least one Grim Reaper wakes up during that time period, you're guaranteed to be dead. Now whether there is a paradox here depends on how the Grim Reapers individually set their alarm clocks. Suppose now that they set them in such a way that the following proposition p is true:

(p) for every time t later than 8 am, at least one of the Grim Reapers woke up strictly between 8 am and t.
Here's a useful Theorem: If the Grim Reapers choose their alarm clock times independently and uniformly over the 8-9 am interval, then P(p)=1.

Now, if p is true, then no Grim Reaper kills you. For suppose that a Grim Reaper who wakes up at some time t1, later than 8 am, kills you. If p is true, there is a Grim Reaper who woke up strictly between 8 am and t1, say at t0. But if so, then you're going to be dead right after t0, and hence the Grim Reaper who woke up at t1 is not going to do anything, since you're dead then. Hence, if p is true, no Grim Reaper kills you. On the other hand, I've shown that it is certain that a Grim Reaper kills you. Hence, if p is true, then no Grim Reaper kills you and a Grim Reaper kills you, which is absurd.

The above argument shows that some arrangements of Grim Reaper alarm clock times, namely the ones that make p be true, are impossible, because they result in your being dead and not dead at the same time. But no such objection can be made to other arrangements of Grim Reaper alarm clock times. For instance, if Grim Reaper 177 wakes up at 8:05 am, and all the other Grim Reapers happen to wake up later, there is no difficulty--Number 177 kills you, and you're dead at 9 am.

Now we have a trilemma. Either all mathematical combinations of Grim Reaper alarm clock times strictly between 8 and 9 am are possible in the above story, or some but not all, or none (in the last case, the story above is impossible whatever the times are). The hypothesis that some but not all are possible seems unlikely. Look: it's midnight, say, and we have all of these Grim Reapers setting their alarm clocks. It would be really, really odd if they were somehow compelled by the metaphysics of the situation to set their times in one of the privileged ways, unless it turns out that there are only finitely many moments of time between 8 and 9 am, so that p cannot be true. (Indeed, by the Theorem given above, these privileged ways of setting times are very unlikely if the Reapers are choosing independently, assuming that all real-numbered times between 8 and 9 am exist, which the Theorem assumes.) That leaves two hypotheses: That all the combinations are possible or none. If all the combinations are possible, so will be the ones that make p true (e.g., Reaper 1 waking up at 8:30:00, Reaper 2 at 8:15:30, Reaper 3 at 8:07:30, Reaper 4 at 8:03:45, and so on). And that's not possible.

So either there are only finitely moments of time between 8 and 9 am, or no combination of Grim Reaper alarm clock settings is possible. In the latter case, it basically follows that it's just impossible to have infinitely many Grim Reapers, whether their wakeup times are arranged so as to result in a paradox or not. So why can't there be infinitely many Grim Reapers? It seems that the only reason to suppose there can't be infinitely many Grim Reapers, even in cases where no paradox is generated, is if one thinks there can't be an actual infinity of objects in existence. And if there can't be an actual infinity of objects in existence, then there can't be an actual infinity of times in the past, since if there were an actual infinity of times, surely a new object could come into existence at each of those times.

So either there are only finitely moments of time between 8 and 9 am, or there are only finitely moments of time in the past. But if there are only finitely many moments of time in the past, there were only finitely many moments of time yesterday between 8 and 9 am, and today is no different. So in either case, a bounded interval of times contains only finitely many moments.

I am not fully convinced by this argument, but I don't have a very good response.

[This post is revised. I am grateful to Bill Craig for pointing out some sloppiness in the original.]

76 comments:

Anonymous said...

Reading this blog is like going to a mental amusement park. It must be really fun to be one of your students.

I suspect that time is, in fact, discrete. After all the physical universe in general seems to be quantum (that is, discrete), so why not time as well? IOW perhaps there are in fact no actual infinities (other than God).

Mike Almeida said...

Hence, if p is true, then no Grim Reaper kills you and a Grim Reaper kills you, which is absurd.

I think what follows is that there is no Grim reaper kills you and you are such that some Grim reaper or other kills you. I'm not sure that's absurd to believe, since it involves an infinite disjunction. If you take the infinite disjunction of propositions of the form 'Reaper n killed a', that disjunction has to be true. But, since the disjunction is infinitely long, you know that no particular disjunct true. It would be nice to have a truth-operator in this context which took wide scope on the disjunction, and narrow scope on each disjunct. Similar expressions are unproblematic in other modal contexts. Ask whether some Reaper was a wrongdoer. W(A v B) (someone or other did wrong) and ~WA & ~WB (no one in particular was a wrongdoer) are perfecly consistent.

Alexander R Pruss said...

Mike:

"there is no Grim reaper kills you and you are such that some Grim reaper or other kills you"

Putting this in terms of quantifiers, I get:

(for all g)(GR(g)->g does not kill you) and you are such that (for some g)(GR(g) and g does kill you).

This seems an explicit contradiction.

(Here, -> is the material conditional, and GR is the predicate that one is a grim reaper.)

Mike Almeida said...

Alex,

There are models for infinite choices on which both (1) and (2) are true. No theorem that would generate contradiction is valid in those models.

1. ~Mp1 & ~Mp2 & . . .& ~Mpoo

2. N(p1 v p2 v . .v poo)

Here we have it is not possible that Reaper1 kills you and not possible that Reaper2 kills you and. . .and not possible that Reaper00 kills you. But necessarily Reaper1 or . .Reaper00 kills you.

Alexander R Pruss said...

Does ~Mp entail ~p does Np entail p on these models?

Alexander R Pruss said...

Sorry, a word dropped out: Does ~Mp entail ~p and does Np entail p on these models?

Mike Almeida said...

Does ~Mp entail ~p does Np entail p on these models?

Give 'N' the interpretation 'is obligatory that; and 'M' the interpretation 'is permissible that'. Let the worlds increase in value infinitely, w1, w2, w2, . . .w00. Let 'Np' be true just in case some world where p is true is better than any world where ~p is true. Finally, let p1 = God actualizes w1. In that case, both (1) and (2) of jan 25, 12:58, are true. I haven't taken the time to work it out, but I'll be those interpretations are also right for the gr puzzle, too. Let me try to show that.

Jeremy Pierce said...

John Hawthorne thinks the mereological sum of all the reapers is what kills you.

Alexander R Pruss said...

Graham Oppy says this, too.

But how can the mereological sum kill you if none of the reapers ever swings a scythe, as in my setting? Remember my setup: "if you're alive, it instantaneously kills you, and if you're not alive, it doesn't do anything". In the case where the reaper wakeup times have a limit point at 8 am, no reaper does anything. But if no individual reaper does anything, neither does the mereological sum do anything.

Unknown said...

Assuming continuous (nondiscrete) time.

If there were 10 reapers spaced out across the hour, the reaper that arrived at 8am + 1hr/10, i.e. 8:06.

In general the reaper that arrives at 8:00 plus 1 hour/n kills. Where n is the number of reapers.

Since we have an infinite number of reapers here, n= infinity, hence the reaper that arrives at lim( n-> infinity) of 8 + 1/n kills.

Essentially the reaper that arrives at 8+1/infinity kills.

Effectively this would be 8, but not quite!

Mk said...

How is this fundamentally different to Zeno's Achilles-and-tortoise paradox?
- an infinite set of events (visits)
- of increasingly small duration
- contained within a finite, bounded time interval
- resulting, at the limit, in a binary event (killing Fred, or overtaking a tortoise).

Sure - the infinite series runs the other way ( in time ), and there is a cause-effect relationship between each Grim Reaper, but how does that negate the solution to Zeno's paradox?

Alexander R Pruss said...

The difference is that the Grim Reaper story sets up a contradiction: the victim is killed by a reaper but no reaper kills him.

Mach said...

Here's the situation in language easier for me to digest this (admittedly, much less fun, but maybe it will help clarify for others or expose where I may go wrong in this post):

(1) {a1, a2, ...} is a sequence in (0,1)
(1a) such that for each t>0, exists an a_n in (0,t)
(2) the smallest a_n does action X

We have

(1a) => smallest a_n does not exist. So we can't say the smallest one did something, so (1a) must be impossible for any sort of entity that undertakes an action. I think everyone would agree.

So, no particular grim reaper set his alarm earliest. Surely it's impossible, therefore, for the alarm settings (1a) to exist. What more this means, I'm much clear.

I don't understand the rejection of the idea that some but not all combinations could be admissible.

"It would be really, really odd if they were somehow compelled by the metaphysics of the situation to set their times in one of the privileged ways"

Why? By what measure is it odd? By our intuition on finite sets? How do we know that intuition holds up? This appears not to be a logical argument at all. Hence, I suggest it may be a false dichotomy.

Small further issue:

"(Indeed, by the Theorem given above, these privileged ways of setting times are very unlikely if the Reapers are choosing independently, assuming that all real-numbered times between 8 and 9 am exist, which the Theorem assumes.)"

The theorem shows that it is unlikely if the alarm times are chosen independently AND uniformly. I don't understand the why the latter assumption should necessarily be imposed and give us license to declare it very unlikely. (I don't understand why it should be excluded either, but I'm just pointing out it's an additional assumption of the theorem.)

Even if they were uniformly iid, probability 1 does not imply the event occurs. For a single clock, we have P{X =/= c} = 1 for any c in (8,9) -- so some event with probability zero must occur on every alarm setting.

Alexander R Pruss said...

"I don't understand the rejection of the idea that some but not all combinations could be admissible."

One thing I've since come to realize is that these Grim Reaper arguments are based on an Aristotelian metaphysics of localized powerful particulars. On such an Aristotelian metaphysics, the particulars have what powers they have, and should be freely recombinable in their different locations.

"Even if they were uniformly iid, probability 1 does not imply the event occurs."

Sure, but probability 1 implies that the event can occur. :-)

Unknown said...

Hi, I've been searching online for the history of reapers and I find this very rare kind of arguement I am not sure what the calculations are for. What I really want to ask though Is that by any means are these feedback you all create really coherent at all?

I dont mean to be a problem but i just wanted to say i found this somewhat amusing.

(Getting back into character)

And also I'd like to know what Is so important about 8 and 9 nine o clock.

Why are we going off into calculations?

And why did the unknown guy come in and post also that everyone would agree?

Is this real or a joke? I really dont mean to disturb you but I saw this and was wondering: If You can comment me on google plus. I would like to know. There was a comment zippy had made that said you make it like a mental amusement park.

Yes. I agree. What is so important about 8 and 9 o clock?
Is this real information you exaggerate or just what you just put up to speak a code only a few can understand?

What is the point of this? (I dont mean to be the agressive stranger or anything but..) I also was wondering,, please guys, dont hate me immediately,,but:
Why is it that zippy is the only one who is coherent on this post? Zippy said exactly how it looks and feels, I just don't understand. Zippy came and got fascinated by your writing just like i did. And when i think about it. Well...*gulp* we all could use a bit more discretion in this crazy world..hmmmm

Please,,listen to a helpful stranger,,
So Ok. Next up:

Take No offense, please,,please,,listen,,

please, please,,,listen:

You DO know that the average reader just doing research wont understand this stuff right? And i say that with the expectation that i just came here to research history: but i kind need to maths it seems. Hold on. This is the most maths i know:

Jesus was a shimigami promoter of long life: Please no offense of my math attempt: (j ws + A prmt of long life) Actually i think your maths is better..Is your maths real maths? It looks real.

Can I atleast get to be the stranger who get to hear What inspired this? ,,,,And,,,,I'm also Not sure if I sound pleasant enough,,but i thought that if you play around with the word 'reaper' like that,,I would definately want to talk to you if you don't mind.

I am not exactly a collage grad, but I just saw your post. What inspired this study sir?

Did you also watch the grudge, being human and Bleach the animation?

Impossible people always annoy and harrass you to leave your space.

Overall, i did get a real smile from this Blog. Ahhh and i analyse that if this was a joke,, you must know ALL about chronic dry eye and legal killings. You might also know what circadian rhythmic antidote take away stress, fear or anxiety.

Bro. me and you are on the same quest....Bro hug?

Please please please, Follow me on facebook family. Stawker Wilson.

Good day to you now until if you see fit to reply.

Cale said...

It seems an easy response to point out that the Grim Reapers you describe would have to violate the physical laws of the universe in order to execute the scenario you describe--no set of physical entities, whether finite or not, could make it happen. Essentially, you are describing a set of magical, essentially phantasmal entities who must have properties which are not just unusual, but physically impossible--unheard of in the totality of our experience.

It seems quite a bit more likely, then, that the proposed paradox is avoided because the existence of such a magical murderer itself is metaphysically impossible than because all infinite sets of actual things are metaphysically impossible.

Certainly, the argument does little and less to support the claim that actually infinite sets are metaphysically impossible--there are just too many viable, alternative metaphysical rules which would prevent the putative paradox. The above is just one of the more obvious and plausible ones that you didn't bother to address.

Alexander R Pruss said...

This is addressed in the forthcoming book.

Quick remark: Generally, philosophers don't want to make the laws of nature be metaphysically necessary.

Cale said...

Thanks for the reply. I commented because I was hoping you might point me to a more updated version of one of your GR arguments, or any similarly styled argument against an infinite past.

I responded to another similar argument of yours a year or so ago (the original post was made here on your blog around the same time as this one) and you suggested that you were moving away from the approach you outlined in that argument (very similar to this one) and towards a different sort of approach altogether. Should I just be waiting for your book, or can I find your more recent work in that vein elsewhere?

Also, note that my proposal is not precisely that we should consider the laws of nature to be metaphysically necessary and, somewhat more importantly, the fact that philosophers generally don't want to make them metaphysically necessary wouldn't salvage this argument from my objection even if that is exactly what I had suggested.

Alexander R Pruss said...

The book, which is coming out in late August, should be the best place to look.

hoblescotch said...

"The last Grim Reaper (Reaper 1) performs this dual task at exactly one
minute after noon.

The next-to-last Reaper, Reaper 2, is appointed to perform the task at
exactly one-half minute after noon.

In general, each Reaper number n is assigned the
moment 1/2^(n-1) minutes after noon.

There is no first Reaper: for each Reaper n, there are infinitely many Reapers who are assigned moments of time earlier than Reaper n’s
appointment." --Koons

There is a reason Koons states, "there is no first reaper", because in that moment, the alleged 'paradox' falls apart.

All this 'paradox' has accomplished is to create an 'infinity' hole by taking successively smaller and smaller chunks of time. This is basically a rehash of zeno's paradox, where Achilles is stuck because no matter how fast he goes, he can never arrive anywhere, because the space between himself and his goal is 'infinitely' far.

I would assume, after setting up the problem correctly, that one could simply take the limit as n approaches infinity (as is demonstrated in the link below), and would arrive at the trivial conclusion that the first grim reaper is the one with the kill, which is to say, the grim reaper that arrives (or wakes up) at the first allowable moment.

http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/1197/1/Zeno_s_Paradoxes_-_A_Timely_Solution.pdf

Furthermore, aside from the weakness of the paradox used here, it is more astounding that the idea of 'infinitely small amounts of time' is being asserted as to not exist over this.

Perhaps within physical reality one may reach a limit of how small a measurable unit of time is, but within the confines of the alleged paradox, it actually demonstrates the opposite, that an infinite amount of time does exist and that still does not prohibit time from moving forward.

There are an infinite amount of rational numbers between 0 and 1, and if I am not mistaken, it is considered 'sparse' compared to the infinite number of reals that exist between 0 and 1. That does not mean you cannot put your car into reverse and get out of the driveway...

Michael Gonzalez said...

hoblescotch: The solution to Zeno is not to embrace the absurd idea that we actually traverse an infinite, which is not just impossible, it is a self-contradiction, and therefore meaningless. It is just like saying "sure you could have a married bachelor, so long as he remains a bachelor after getting married".

The solution to Zeno's paradox is to treat the infinity in question as merely potential rather than actual. (There aren't actually infinitely many sub-divisions in the world; there's just no limit to how many sub-divisions you could in principle do).

To use your comparison, the potential for sub-dividing the real numbers between 0 and 1 is infinite/limitless, but no one could ever actually complete this sub-dividing. "Never" is just the conceptual flip-side of "infinite". Think about it: if mathematics with limits actually told us what would happen when we arrive at the end of infinite iterations, differentials would always equal 0/0 and calculus would be meaningless. Fortunately, the whole task is meaningless from the start, since an infinite number of iterations can never actually be completed.

For the Grim Reapers, the paradox cannot be resolved by just saying there was a first. If there were, then, the number would be finite. Moreover, we can't just shrug our shoulders and point at math with infinite sets. This is an infinite sequence and the man cannot still be alive after the allotted time, and yet no particular Grim Reaper could ever meet the qualifications for killing him. He is both alive and dead. Paradox.

hoblescotch said...

Michael:

Before you comment anymore, please answer for me this question: the integral from 0 to infinity of 1/2^x

Michael Gonzalez said...

Hoblescotch:

I don't see the relevance, and it's been a minute, so I might have messed up a step, but I think the limit part goes to zero, and so minus the 0 part.... 1/ln(2),right?

Even if I got it wrong, what's the relevance?

hoblescotch said...

Michael, you just took an integral from 0 to infinity while simultaneously claiming:

"Think about it: if mathematics with limits actually told us what would happen when we arrive at the end of infinite iterations, differentials would always equal 0/0 and calculus would be meaningless."

Which is it?

Michael Gonzalez said...

Hoblescotch:

I already explained why the mathematical use of infinite limits is not the same as actually traversing or completing an infinite. An infinite limit is a potential infinite. Your original example of the numbers between 0 and 1 was sufficient. The function in your second example keeps diminishing so that it approaches zero. But it will never actually arrive. There is no value at which the result is actually zero. We just realize that that's what it's getting closer and closer to and so we treat it as zero. If there were a value at which it actually equalled zero, then the limit wouldn't actually be infinity, but some finite number.

The issue is not mathematical; it is conceptual. The entire use of terms like "infinity" is to distinguish that which could never be arrived at from that which could.

Besides, you haven't addressed the paradox of the Grim Reaper, which grants you the real infinity. Still the man must be dead by noon and yet none of the Reapers could have possibly killed him. There is no "infinity-eth" Reaper, just smaller and smaller finite numbers forever.

hoblescotch said...

Michael:

How many sums are in a Riemann integral?

How many times would you need to add 1/2^k to arrive at the number 2?

The fact is, mathematics deals with the infinite. It obviously makes you uncomfortable, as you cannot seem to accept that you integrated an infinite amount of sums over an infinite line, but your level of discomfort does not matter in the least.

The 'First' Grim Reaper:

8am <= t <= 9am

For any given grim reaper, the time that the grim reaper arrives, if each grim reaper arrives at 1/2^(n-1) before the next grim reaper,
where n is greater than zero and an integer:

a0: 9am
a1: a0-1/2^1 =
a2: a1-1/2^2 = a0 - 1/2^1 - 1/2^2
...
a_n+1: a_n - 1/2^(n+1)

Thus, we have a situation such at the 'first reaper' arrives at a_sub_infinity whereas the 'last reaper' arrives at a0.

This can be restated as:

a0 - the sum of 1/2^k; where k goes from 1 to infinity

The infinite sum, 1/2^k from 1 to infinity is known to converge at 1.

Thus, the time the 'first reaper' will arrive is at 9am - 1 hour. Which is 8am.

Pruss:

I present, the Grim Reaper Measurist to solve the alleged paradox.

Let's say, every grim reaper that is sent to kill someone from 8am to 9am must first check in with the Grim Reaper Measurist who makes a tiny mark on a ruler to denote the grim reaper and their place in line.

Now, after the person is dead, the measure is handed to you and you are asked to count the number of marks. How many marks are there?

As you are handed the Grim Reaper ruler, the Real Measurist happens to be passing by and states that you may as well count the Real ruler as it would contain everything on the Grim Reaper ruler and much, much more. Just then, a reaper intended to kill you swings his scythe, but you hold up the Real ruler to defend yourself and it is cut in half. Holding both pieces you begin to cry, but the Real measurist comes to comfort your by saying, both of the two pieces contain the same number of lines as when they are put together, which makes you truly howl in pain...

There are, when you look back at time, an infinite amount of infinite points that can be observed.

The paradox is in the understanding of infinity. It is not true that infinite events are continuously growing, as is implied by the paradox, it is that upon abstract inspection, one can always further subdivide divisions, ad infinitum.

Michael Gonzalez said...

Hoblescotch:

The issue is not that I'm uncomfortable with infinity; it's that you have not understood it. You use it perfectly well in mathematics, but that doesn't mean you've understood the concept. It is not some final number in a sequence which can be arrived at. If it were, we could ask what number directly preceded it. But there is no answer to that. No, infinity is a term used specifically to speak about situations in which you cannot arrive at the end. That's the very concept of infinity. There is no "infinity-eth" member of any set or sequence.

You ask "how many times would you need to add 1/2^k to arrive at the number 2", and the proper answer is "you would never arrive at 2". The limit that you are always approaching, but never actually reaching may be 2. But here's the key point: If you finally DID reach 2, what was the value of k at that point??. You can't specify an answer because there isn't one because there is no such thing as arriving at infinity. If you could specify a value for k at the point where we arrive at 2 then you and I would both say the number of sums was actually finite after all.

Likewise, you want to say that the "first" Grim Reaper was at 8am, but that just shows your conceptual confusion. How many times exactly would you have cut the intervals in half before finally arriving at 8am itself? If you say "infinity" is the number of cuttings, then what about the one right before that? Is it infinity minus 1? You know good and well that that is not defined, precisely because it makes no sense to treat infinity that way.

To your proposed "Measurist" solution: Yes, one can always further subdivide divisions, ad infinitum, but one can never finally make the infinity-eth sub-division, and so one can never arrive at the alleged 8am Reaper who kills me. That's the whole point of the paradox. I must be dead by 9:00, but none of the reapers would ever qualify to kill me.

I honestly prefer other paradoxes over this one, to show that an infinite past is impossible (like the two orbiting planets or the Counting Man), but I think this Grim Reaper one works just fine. Your problem is a conceptual confusion.

hoblescotch said...

Michael, I am not going to spiral into infinity with you and your myriad of points and talking passed me to prove your pet notions on the paradox.

I have presented my mathematical argument for the grim reaper scenario. Until you have addressed my first point, mathematically, I am not willing to discuss the matter further.

Michael Gonzalez said...

hoblescotch:

I definitely don't mean to talk past your or to promote an agenda without listening. I thought I had addressed your points, and then I attempted to explain where you seem to me to be conceptually (not mathematically) confused.

If there is a mathematical question or challenge you have, I can try to answer it (though I'm no mathematician). But, the issue dividing us is not mathematical; it's conceptual and linguistic. It has to do with the very meaning and proper deployment of the term "infinite" and associated terms. You and I would surely come to the same answers in any purely mathematical case.

May I ask: Do you not agree that the use of the term "infinite" and associated words in English is specifically for the purpose of distinguishing the situation from "finite" ("non-infinite") cases where there is an end or final member or... well, finitude of any sort?

hoblescotch said...

Michael...

"If there is a mathematical question or challenge you have, I can try to answer it (though I'm no mathematician)"

Please, go, you, yourself, learn mathematics, and at that point, return with an argument.

Michael Gonzalez said...

hoblescotch, I'm competent up to all the mathematics you've mentioned so far; I'm just acknowledging that I'm not a mathematician by trade, and that I have limits.

But this is not a complicated mathematical problem. It's as simple as asking "what is the highest natural number?" It's a conceptual confusion on your part; not a difference in our math competency.

Can you not deign to answer my simple question: If there can be an "infinity-eth" Reaper who kills me, then what was the value of the one right before him?

hoblescotch said...

What's your problem, Michael? I have repeatedly said, show up with a mathematical argument or bust.

Not saying it again.

Michael Gonzalez said...

I did give a mathematical argument: If there is a "first" Reaper at the end of the infinite series of sub-divisions, then what was the value of the Reaper one sub-division prior to him? I've asked this at least three times, and it is indeed a mathematical argument.

Good luck.

hoblescotch said...

Michael, you did not make any argument, you are asking a question with the intent of weakening my argument. So, present an actual argument.

My argument is clear. I stated that there is indeed a first grim reaper and I demonstrated such, mathematically. I welcome you to make a counter argument, mathematically.

Michael Gonzalez said...

My mathematical argument would start identical to yours, with the following ending:

Suppose that x is the value of k when the sum finally arrives at 1. It must be the case that for the set of real numbers, {R}:

x ∈ R
For any y, if y ∈ R, then y ≤ x

i.e. x is the highest real number.

Since there is no highest real number, 1/2^k never reaches one, and there is no first Grim Reaper.

QED.

It's not complex mathematics; it's basic. You confused "converging to 1" with actually arriving at it. It would be like claiming that a hyperbola actually eventually touches its asymptotes. It's just plain mistaken.

hoblescotch said...

Michael, allow me to remind you that you, at one point, offered your mathematical assistance to me...but, it is obvious that you are in need of assistance.

*****************************
"My mathematical argument would start identical to yours, with the following ending:"

Then copy paste it, like a gentleman would, seeing as you are using my work for yourself. I will paste it:

8am <= t <= 9am

For any given grim reaper, the time that the grim reaper arrives, if each grim reaper arrives at 1/2^(n-1) before the next grim reaper,
where n is greater than zero and an integer:

a0: 9am
a1: a0-1/2^1 =
a2: a1-1/2^2 = a0 - 1/2^1 - 1/2^2
...
a_n+1: a_n - 1/2^(n+1)

Thus, we have a situation such at the 'first reaper' arrives at a_sub_infinity whereas the 'last reaper' arrives at a0.

This can be restated as:

a0 - the sum of 1/2^k; where k goes from 1 to infinity

The infinite sum, 1/2^k from 1 to infinity is known to converge at 1.

Thus, the time the 'first reaper' will arrive is at 9am - 1 hour. Which is 8am
*****************************

"Suppose that x is the value of k when the sum finally arrives at 1."

"x ∈ R"

k is an element of the integers, why would we assume they would be equal or could be equal when the sum arrives at 1?

"i.e. x is the highest real number."

No such thing exists.

"Since there is no highest real number"

So, you write out something that is false, point it being false, and now you've won the argument? No.

"1/2^k never reaches one"

You mean, your mangling of mathematics was unintelligible and full of errors.

"there is no first Grim Reaper."

I have already proven there is while you have not proven anything.

Michael Gonzalez said...

First, I apologize for not pasting the beginning of the argument. I didn't mean to be rude.

Secondly, what do you mean by this: "k is an element of the integers, why would we assume they would be equal or could be equal when the sum arrives at 1?"

I don't know what you're referring to. I'm saying there must be a value, x, which k would have at the point where we finally reach the result of "1". If there is no such value, then we never arrive at 1. Do you disagree?

"So, you write out something that is false, point it being false, and now you've won the argument? No."

Have you never done proofs? One of the most common parts of a proof is to show that denying the claim in question would lead to a contradiction or obvious falsehood. I showed that denying my claim that there is no first Reaper requires you to set the final value of k as the highest real number, and you and I both agree there cannot be such a thing. Ergo, there cannot be a first Reaper.

hoblescotch said...

"One of the most common parts of a proof is to show that denying the claim in question would lead to a contradiction or obvious falsehood."

Which is not what you did at all. You merely make a claim, stated it was false, then proceeded to come to arbitrary conclusions.

Let me re-outline what I believe your argument to be:

Let's say the grim reapers each have a name, the name being the integer assigned to them, the index k, in this case.

So, the last reaper would have the name '0'. The second to last, '1'...and so on. You are asking me what is the 'name' of the 'first reaper'. Correct?

And, you are assuming, without an argument, so I assume you are taking the original Grim Reaper argument, that if no 'first reaper' exists, that time in the past cannot be infinite, correct?

1. Irrelevant. I never claimed to know exactly which reaper did the kill or the second to last kill nor the number of the reaper that made the kill; I made the claim that I can state unequivocally at what time the first reaper committed the kill, which I demonstrated, meaning there is indeed a first reaper.

2. Even if your 'argument' somehow disproved my argument had some validity to the question at hand of whether or not the past can be infinite (it doesn't, it is just the same argument which I have already addressed), I would counter with my secondary argument:

Reverse the roles. There was a clerical error such that instead of the last reaper being assigned the index of 0 the first reaper was.

So, now tell me, what is the number of the last reaper? As was stated in the original prompt, we know there is a last reaper BY DEFINITION. So, does the last reaper cease to exist simply because you do not know his name?

3. I have already stated that the alleged paradox is with the understanding of infinity. There are absolutely an infinite number of 'moments in time' in the past but only because there are an infinite number of observations of the past that can be made at any point in the future. There is no paradox.

Michael Gonzalez said...

I agree that the Grim Reaper paradox does not directly entail that there can't be an infinite past. I have other paradoxes that do entail that, but the Grim Reaper is just meant to cause a problem with infinities in general; not specifically the infinite past.

So, we do agree on something, more or less. However...


It doesn't matter if you are choosing "which Reaper" or "which time". Either way, you have not resolved the paradox.

You think you can give the exact time at which the killing occurs, but you are immediately confronted with the question of how many sub-divisions it took! And which sub-division was the one right before the one that finally got us to 8am? There are no answers to these questions because you cannot actually complete an infinite series.

Reversing the roles just creates the same paradox in the opposite direction, except that you have to call them "Revivers" who bring me back from the dead (to properly reverse the situation... otherwise the first Reaper would just kill me and there wouldn't be anymore). Still, you can never get to the end of infinite sub-divisions. If you could, it would make sense to ask how many divisions it took, and what was the time value for the penultimate sub-division.

hoblescotch said...


You: "but the Grim Reaper is just meant to cause a problem with infinities in general; not specifically the infinite past."

False.

"The contradiction lies in the fact that Fred will surely die before the end of the minute, but that also there is no Grim Reaper who will kill him. What this paradox seems to show, at least according to the finitists, is that there could not be finite duration of time (such as a minute) that is actually divided into infinitely many sub-regions."
https://useofreason.wordpress.com/2020/01/05/the-grim-reaper-paradox-and-the-original-solution-part-1/

You: "It doesn't matter if you are choosing "which Reaper" or "which time". Either way, you have not resolved the paradox."

False. According to the original problem, the issue is that the first reaper cannot be determined. I say, forget giving the names of the reapers according to the index but instead give it according to the time in which the reaper arrives. By doing so, I demonstrate there is no contradiction only a misunderstanding.

For example, take every moment forward from here. Would you agree that, at least, is infinite, regardless of whether something exists to measure it? If so, take every second from here into eternity and map it to the grim reaper problem by writing down the index name of each reaper for their payroll. Tell me when you will have filled out the grim reaper payroll. It will never happen and thusly demonstrating my initial proposition.

Upon inspection, at least in the abstract sense, there exists an infinite number of points given any continuous set that contains at least more than 1 point.

"Reversing the roles just creates the same paradox in the opposite direction"

Not in the context of looking at the problem from both ends. By looking at it from both ends, you may easily conclude that both the first and last reapers exist even while you may not know how many reapers exist in between them.

"Still, you can never get to the end of infinite sub-divisions."

Yes, you can, you take the limit. Just as Achilles cannot ever reach the end of the race because of the infinite possible divisions between here and there...that is, until he does.

Michael Gonzalez said...

1) The Reapers are just a way of giving character to the time intervals. The paradox works just fine without them. Run it with God or magic or whatever that determines I will die at the smallest possible interval between 8am and 9am. When will I die? And what was the interval prior to that?

2) If there is a final member of an infinite sequence, then there would be one right before that. So, if you can arrive at the end then what was the member right before that? You can't answer. And you keep dodging the problem, because you know it is fatal to your point.

3) Limits are not reachable. That's their whole purpose. They are like the asymptotes of a curve. Do you believe that curves eventually reach their asymptotes or no? If not, why not? They are approaching them forever exactly like how limits are approached forever. Why can't they touch at the end of infinity?

4) The Achilles problem is resolved by recognizing that the sub-divided intervals of his journey are merely a potential infinity; not an actual one. There is just the journey. A person could divide that in half, and then cut it in half again, and so on, but they would never reach the infinity-eth cut. It would always be some finite number. Failing to recognize the difference between potential and actual infinites was Zeno's problem and it is yours as well. You ask about the future, and it is not infinite either. At every time, there will always be a finite number of years from right now. It will go on and on, but it will never reach "infinity years". That's not a thing.

hoblescotch said...

You are not addressing anything I am saying, merely making more random assertions.

1) "When will I die? And what was the interval prior to that?"

Completely ignoring the original prompt. If you want to present an entirely new prompt, do so, but realize that we will not move forward from this one until it is exhausted.

Is there a last grim reaper? Yes. Have I demonstrated there is a first? Yes.

Have you demonstrated that either do not exist? No.

2) "If there is a final member of an infinite sequence, then there would be one right before that."

This is just a reiteration of the first.

3) "The Achilles problem is resolved by recognizing that the sub-divided intervals of his journey are merely a potential infinity; not an actual one. "

False, there are literally an infinite number of subdivisions that can be made not a 'potential' number--whatever that means.

P.S.

"You ask about the future, and it is not infinite either. At every time, there will always be a finite number of years from right now. It will go on and on, but it will never reach "infinity years". That's not a thing."

So, you are denying that the future is infinite, even while stating that it is infinite. NICE. Your logic is confoundingly bad.

Michael Gonzalez said...

Hoble: You seem to be demanding that I accept you have proven your point, and then nevertheless present my own argument proving the opposite. That's ludicrous. I have shown through many examples, questions, challenges, and counter-arguments that you did not prove what you set out to prove. You simply misused the limit concept and skipped from "the limit of a function (which, by definition is always approached but never reached; check any math text you like) has a definite value" to "the end of an infinite series can actually be reached and will have that value". That is an incorrect move, and so your argument fails.

My challenges, questions, and examples are designed to help you understand the problem. But, since you keep refusing to answer or address any of them (asymptotes, penultimate values, etc), we're not making any progress. So please just answer the following three simple questions, and then I promise to answer any challenge or question you like. Ok? I won't dodge, and I won't ignore anything. But, I'd bet anything that you can't answer any of these three questions without immediately showing the fault in your position:

1) If there is a final time interval at the end of an infinite series, then what was the interval directly prior to it?

2) If we sub-divide Achilles' trip into smaller and smaller finite numbers, at what point do we reach a number that is not finite?

3) If we talk about the future years from today on, at what point does the number of years stop being finite?

Please, just give it a shot. Conversations are two-way streets, and I did what you asked. I gave a mathematical argument. You may not like it, but I don't like yours either, so that doesn't mean we can't move forward here. Seriously, try to answer any of those 3 and we'll definitely make progress.

hoblescotch said...

"I have shown through many examples, questions, challenges, and counter-arguments that you did not prove what you set out to prove."

You have not demonstrated anything aside from your utter lack of logical ability.

1, 2, and 3 are all iterations of each other. No clue why you think repeating your failed argument over and over again somehow improves it. It does not.

Again, is there a last reaper? Again, if you reverse the index, do you have a first reaper?

Yes and yes.

Again, am I able to take an infinite sum? Again, does Achilles actually finish the race?

Yes and yes.

Again, is the future infinite? Again, am I able to map from the infinite future into any arbitrary bounded set of time in the past?

Yes and yes.

Again, am I able to give an exact time for when the last reaper arrives? Again, am I able to give an exact time for when the first reaper arrives?

Yes and yes.

If you care to disprove anything I've said there, I am all ears. Otherwise, I am ignoring you.

Michael Gonzalez said...

I'll disprove your First Reaper argument with an airtight logical deduction, and then maybe you'll actually answer my questions. I really didn't think this would be necessary....

A logical proof against your First Reaper argument, using your own notation:

P1. For any Reaper, there corresponds a value of n in (a_n+1: a_n - 1/2^(n+1)) starting with a_0 being 9am, a_1 being a_0-1/2^1, etc. (your claim).
P2. The Reaper who kills me does so at 8am (your claim).
P3. But there is no value of n that yields 8am from (a_n+1: a_n - 1/2^(n+1)) if we start with a_0 being 9am, a_1 being a_0-1/2^1, etc. (basic arithmetic).
C1. Therefore there is no Reaper at 8am (P1 + P3)
C2. Therefore there both is and isn't a Reaper at 8am (P2 + C1).
Contradiction.

This argument is sound, and so you must either reject P1 or P2, both of which I basically copied from your argument. Or you must show that P3 is false, which is what I've been asking you to do all along.

hoblescotch said...

I concur with P1 and P2 (I had better...)

I disagree with P3.

I do not need a literal value of n, I need only prove that the kill occurred at 8am, which I have done, twice over. First by taking the limit, and second by reversing the problem, making a_0 the index of the first reaper as opposed to the last.

Do you disagree that the kill occurs at 8am, if so, please demonstrate your argument.

So, if I am right, C1 is wrong.

As there is a reaper at 8am, whose first name I do not know (the k index), but whose last name I know(the m index, the inverse of the k index), but knowing the name is not relevant in this case as we are, again, trying to determine if the reaper exists not who the reaper is, which I admit, I do not know who the reaper is, but I have demonstrated that the reaper does in fact exist.

And, C2 is then also wrong.

I have proven there is a reaper at 8am whose last name is '0'.

P.S. I appreciate you making your argument more concrete. If I am lacking in concreteness, please point it out, and I will tighten up my arguments.

Michael Gonzalez said...

I apologize for not just doing that in the first place. I was taking things for granted in my own mind, and not spelling things out like I should.

I agree that the case is going to live or die on P3. So, let me try to work through your points about it:

1) It seems to me that the wording of P1 ("for ANY Reaper, there corresponds a value of n...") precludes any Reapers killing me for which there is no value of n.

2) You ask: "Do you disagree that the kill occurs at 8am, if so, please demonstrate your argument."

Response: C1 just is the statement that there is no Reaper at 8am. You'd need to deny P1 or P3, and so far you technically haven't. So far, you agree that no value of n will yield 8am and you agree that every Reaper has a value of n.

3) I don't want to leave the "limit" and "reversal" arguments unaddressed, though I don't think they get you out of either C1 or C2 of my argument.

Unfortunately, I can't think of much to say about "limits" and "reversal" beyond the things I've already said. Limits aren't meant to be actually reached (just like asymptotes aren't ever actually reached), and reversal needs to reverse the whole scenario, in which case you can never get to the Reaper we used to call "last".

I guess the key is this: If you accept P1 and P3, then an 8am Reaper is out of the question.

hoblescotch said...

1) We know a reaper arrives at 8am, and because it is the terminal point in a bounded time interval, we know that is the reaper responsible.

2) I believe 1 covers this.

3) A limit is indeed reached. If I sum 1/2^k, there are no amount of numbers I could add which would exceed 2, and from the other side, 3 - 1/2^k, no amount of subtractions I could make that would drop below 2. However, both one-sided limits are approaching the same limit, namely 2, as well as satisfying the other necessities for a limit to be taken.

Let us return to the original question at hand, is there a first reaper?

We are given a scenario such that 8am <= t <= 9am. That is a bounded time limit. There is an 'exact' instance where t = 8am as well as an 'exact' instance where t = 9am.

Given that each reaper can only operate within their own specified 'exact instant', we know that if a reaper is present at 8am, that is the only reaper present and therefore the killer.

Now, were the prompt 8am < t <= 9am....I wouldn't have a shot of talking about the 'exact' moment the kill occurred and I would be forced to stick to the 'reversed index' argument. However, that is not the case.

So, I accept P1 (and assert P2 as a consequence) but reject P3

Michael Gonzalez said...
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Michael Gonzalez said...

I'm sorry, but P3 is mathematically certain. Besides, you have tacitly agreed with it throughout our discussion. The only way to refute P3 is to give the value of n, or show that there must be one, which corresponds to 8am. But that would be like giving the position on a curve (or showing there must be one) where it actually touches its asymptote. It's obviously a doomed endeavor. There is no such value. This is why I kept harping on this single point; and why, I believe, you kept dodging it. It's the lynchpin of the whole Grim Reaper argument and the flaw in your proposed solution.

As for "prompts": the 8am <= t <= 9am prompt came from you; not Pruss' argument. Pruss' argument begins with: "Say that a Grim Reaper is a being that has the following properties: It wakes up at a time between 8 and 9 am, both exclusive...".

hoblescotch said...

"the 8am <= t <= 9am prompt came from you; not Pruss' argument."

Why did you wait until now to say that?

I have been right about my argument the entire time, you have been fallaciously arguing against it while ignoring that I am not arguing the problem...

Great job.

Happy I pushed you to be more concrete so we could point out that the prompt reads exclusive...

So, I would then just argue, if you want to know what time the first reaper makes the kill, you have to prove to me that the moment in time you are speaking of exists.

Michael Gonzalez said...

1) I hadn't thought about the exclusivity until you mentioned it the last time. But my argument stands regardless. Even if we consider the range inclusive for both 9am and 8am, you can't deny P1 (it's your own claim, and is clearly correct) and you can't deny P3 (it's arithemtically obvious), so you're stuck with C1. Calling the range inclusive doesn't change that.

2) The moment in time manifestly does not exist. That's the whole point! There is no smallest interval, so there is no Reaper corresponding to the "final" value of "n", and so there is no Reaper that can kill you. But, nevertheless, you obviously cannot survive to 9am. So, you both do and don't survive, and the only way out of that contradiction is to deny that there can actually be an infinite number of Reapers/intervals. That is literally the whole point of the argument.

hoblescotch said...

My opening argument was with inclusive time...

If the time is inclusive, there is no paradox, as I have proven but you are too dense to accept, even while admitting you have been arguing for a different prompt.

If the time is exclusive, there still is no paradox, there is only a fallacy in the way the problem is presented. There is no time t that satisfies t = t0. So, obviously you cannot find the reaper that makes the kill at that time because that moment in time does not exist and thus no reaper could be assigned it.

If the question is: Is infinity a number? The answer is no.

If the question is: Do infinities exist? The answer is yes.

If the question is: Do limits exist? Yes.

Your arguments are wrong against inclusive time but perfectly fine for exclusive time, and you were absolutely wrong about the existence of limits and the existence of infinities. I was wrong in my reading of the prompt, but my argument was sound given my reading of the prompt--which I clearly indicated several times.

Michael Gonzalez said...

Will you please just answer how exactly you can get out of P1 + P3 = C1? I mean really. I'm totally fine admitting I didn't notice or care about whether Pruss had stated that it was exclusive, because I make mistakes, and also because I don't think it makes one speck of difference to my argument. Whether the range is inclusive or not, P1 and P2 are your statements, P3 is basic math, and C1 follows logically from P1 and P3 together.

So, unless you've got an answer that you've been keeping hidden all this time, you've failed to make your case (even if I grant you the inclusive range that we had both mistakenly thought we had to work with).

hoblescotch said...

Michael, you have wasted my time by not reading my original argument and by arguing something else nonsensically. Simply claiming that I have failed does not make it so.

I have demonstrated with inclusive time that there is an exact time that the kill is made and there is only 1 reaper that can do it. Sorry you cannot comprehend that.

JCarver said...

I think what the argument shows is that you can't encounter the infinitieth member of an infinite set. If you can, the set isn't infinite. But that's not a problem with the concept, it's what you would expect. Suppose a reaper has an alarm set for 12am, then another for 12:30, then 12:45... The reaper at 12am kills you. But it isn't the "first" or "last" member of the infinite sequence of reapers, just "a" member. Suppose you encounter an infinite bookshelf that goes on in either direction, and you pick a book off the shelf. The book you picked isn't a particular numbered member, it's just a member. Suppose you come to a different infinite shelf, but it only goes on forever to your left. You pick the book off the shelf which only has a book to its left. Again, there's no reason to call this book the "last" or "first" book, it is enough just to be one of the books on the shelf.

VictorMollo said...

Is the paradox possibly related to the fact that the time interval is uncountably infinite but you only have countably infinite Grim Reapers?

Alexander R Pruss said...

It's an interesting suggestion, but I don't think so. Even if the time interval consisted only of the rational numbers, the paradox would remain.

jtveg said...

I'm probably missing something completely obvious, but why doesn't the first (earliest) 8:00 AM grim reaper kill you?

JCarver said...
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JCarver said...

After ruminating on the paradox, I still don't sense what the force of it is supposed to be. You can only be struck dead by reaper NEAREST to you in time, but there is no such reaper, obviously. You can't be killed by the "infinitieth" reaper, just like you can't count the LAST number in the set of natural numbers. The paradox, it seems to me, isn't caused by the concept of infinity itself, but a failure to see that some scenarios aren't actually possible if concrete, infinite sets of things exist. If the problem results from the very concept of infinity, then why does the paradox fail to manifest on the stipulation that there is a reaper with an alarm set for 8am, and then an infinite series of reapers at every hour on the hour later in time? Well, because THIS scenario doesn't ask you to do the impossible, namely identify the first and last members of an infinite series. (OF COURSE you can't, that's the point of it BEING infinite.) The so-called paradox just sets up a impossible scenario, it doesn't show that an infinite set of concrete things is itself impossible.

JCarver said...

Maybe I can illustrate the point another way. Suppose the following:

(1) An infinitely long numbered ruler exists.
(2) You bend the ruler in half and set both ends on the ground in front of you.
(3) The the inch on the bend in the ruler is infinitely distant, but is nonetheless a PARTICULAR inch.
(4) Thus, the inch on the bend has a number, but we cannot say which one! PARADOX!

No, not really. That is because this scenario can't happen if the ruler is infinity long. If it is, there is no half-way point and no terminal end opposite yours. But is that any reason to think you can't be holding the zero end? I see no reason why not.

VictorMollo said...

We have:
(p) for every time t later than 8 am, at least one of the Grim Reapers woke up strictly between 8 am and t.

The statement If the Grim Reapers choose their alarm clock times independently and uniformly over the 8-9 am interval, then P(p)=1. tells us that there is a procedure of setting alarm clocks such that (p) is true.

(p) says that for any time t later than 8 a.m., there is a Grim Reaper that woke up before t and hence you are dead at time t. This is true for any t > 8:00 a.m.

This is exactly equivalent to saying that there is no smallest element in an open interval. So you die at 8:00 a.m. plus epsilon, where epsilon is as small as you like.

Proof
We have a countably infinite number of Grim Reapers. If we map times from 8:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. to the real line (0,1), then the probability that one Grim Reaper sets his alarm clock outside the interval (0,€) is 1-€. The probability for n Grim Reapers is (1-€)^n, which tends to zero as n tends to infinity. The probability that at least one Grim Reaper sets his alarm clock in the interval (0,€) tends to one as the number of Grim Reapers tends to infinity.

We therefore have with probability one that you die indistinguishably close to 8:00 a.m.

No paradox.

Michael Gonzalez said...

Victor: If there's no value of n at which I die, then I don't die.

JCarver: the point isn't that there are no unproblematic scenarios with infinities, but rather that the Grim Reaper scenario should be unproblematic but is made impossible by the infinity in it.

VictorMollo said...

Michael: We are dealing with probabilities. For every value of t you die with probability 1.

Michael Gonzalez said...

Victor: Correct, if I've made it to that value. But, there is not value of t that will work, since there will always be an earlier one at which I would certainly have died first. Isn't that the whole point?

VictorMollo said...

Michael: correct. You die at a time indistinguishable from 8:00 a.m.

It isn't a paradox. It's a property of real numbers on an open interval. It is the same as asking what is the smallest real number of the open interval (0,1). It isn't zero, as zero isn't part of the interval. But it is as close to zero as you care to get.

My discourse about n was just to show that you will actually die, i.e. that the probability holds up for arbitrarily small intervals.

Alexander R Pruss said...

If you die right after 8:00 am, what kills you? Remember that with probability one, none of the Grim Reapers does anything: for if you're already dead, the Grim Reaper does nothing. So what is your cause of death?

VictorMollo said...

Alexander: With probability one, a Grim Reaper kills you. I showed that in my comment at 1:36 AM.

We have a continuum of Grim Reapers. Probability is only defined for a continuous distribution on an interval, not a point, so I don't see how your comment after "Remember..." applies.

JCarver said...

If the paradox is due to the nature of infinity itself, why is there no paradox on the stipulation that one of the reapers has an alarm set for 8am? Isn't the paradox due to the impossibility of a "first" alarm in a set of alarms set ever closer to, but never arriving at 8am, not the infinity of reapers? We could actually program a digital watch to set an alarm according to that rule, and it would just run the calculation forever, right? Isn't that what we're trying to do in our mind's eye when answering the question "which reaper kills you?"

JCarver said...

The digital watch makes me think of another scenario. Say all the reapers have digital watches, all in Bluetooth communication with each other. The watches have a program that says "Set an alarm between 8am and 9am but not 8am. If that time is already set by another watch, repeat." Nobody, not even the reapers, knows what the earliest alarm is. But is seems reasonable to say that at 8am all the alarms are set, and some reaper or other has an earliest alarm (there's no reason that can't be so). Then, you won't survive past 9am, even though there are an infinite number of set alarms, and we can't say exactly when you'll die between 8am and 9.

JCarver said...

Michael Gonzales: "the point isn't that there are no unproblematic scenarios with infinities, but rather that the Grim Reaper scenario should be unproblematic but is made impossible by the infinity in it."

I'm saying that the grim reaper scenario MUST be problematic, but that's because of the procedure chosen for setting the clocks, not the fact that there are infinite clocks and reapers.

Alexander R Pruss said...

Victor:

1. Only a first-to-wake-up grim reaper can kill you.

2. The probability that there exists a first-to-wake-up grim reaper is zero.

3. So, the probability that you are killed is zero.

Which step do you disagree with?

JCarver said...

(1) “ If the Grim Reapers choose their alarm clock times independently and uniformly over the 8-9 am interval, then P(p)=1.”

“(p) for every time t later than 8 am, at least one of the Grim Reapers woke up strictly between 8 am and t.”

But surely (p) doesn’t follow at all from (1). When all the reapers set their clocks, either the time on any individual clock marked the first alarm after 8am, or it didn’t, and there is at least one alarm that is the first one after 8am, given that every reaper has a set clock. It’s not as if they have to set times constantly approaching 8am but never reaching it because they run out of moments elsewhere. For every reaper you pick, it’s true that his alarm is set for some time or other, either 8am or later--- and that’s it.

JCarver said...

The following is a tangent:

You mention William Lane Craig, and of course his interest in this argument is to help establish that the number of past events is finite. But ANY argument of this kind only has force if we have reason to think that moments, seconds, hours, and so on are actually real features of reality in and of themselves. That idea seems obviously false, isn't it intuitive that time-talk just a mental convenience? We don't need to reference moments or segments of time to EXPLAIN anything about actual experience, they are just nice shorthand for organizing memory and making plans. None of the functions of time talk and time keeping devices require that moments and units of time actually exist. (Clocks are just a regular reference point, they don't actually measure a thing that exists called time.) It seems silly to think of the past as a collection of time-segments that have been piling up somehow, or of the future as blank segments we have yet to fly by us or something.

VictorMollo said...

Alexander: I disagree with step two. The statement "first-to-wake-up" is ill-defined. We have an open interval on the rationals. The statement "first-to-wake-up" is equivalent to "smallest rational on the open interval". There is no smallest rational on an open interval. But there is, with probability one, a rational smaller than any rational you care to name.

It is like saying that the sum of 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8 + ... doesn't exist, because you can always add the next fraction to the sum. But the sum does exist and is equal to one.