The causal probability of an event B on an event A is cPA(B)=∑KP(K)P(B|AK), where the Ks are a partition based on the relevant dependency hypotheses compatible with A. (Compare to P(B|A)=∑KP(K|A)P(B|AK).) A standard proposal in the literature is that
- the degree of the assertibility of an indicative "If A, then B" is equal to the conditional probability P(B|A) of B on A.
- the degree of assertibility of a subjunctive conditional or counterfactual A→B is equal to the causal probability cPA(B) of B on A.
- EV(A) = ∑BU(BA)P(A→B),
- EV(A) = ∑BU(BA)cPA(B).
Notice, however, that this approach may not be compatibility with Molinism. For according to Molinism, God knows some conditionals of free will A→B, where B is a free action and A is a maximally specific set of antecedents, for sure. If P is God's probabilities, then in such cases: