Thursday, March 15, 2018

Something that has no reasonable numerical epistemic probability

I think I can give an example of something that has no reasonable (numerical) epistemic probability.

Consider Goedel’s Axiom of Constructibility. Goedel proved that if the Zermelo-Fraenkel (ZF) axioms are consistent, they are also consistent with Constructibility (C). We don’t have any strong arguments against C.

Now, either we have a reasonable epistemic probability for C or we don’t.

If we don’t, here is my example of something that has no reasonable epistemic probability: C.

If we do, then note that Goedel showed that ZF + C implies the Axiom of Choice, and hence implies the existence of non-measurable sets. Moreover, C implies that there is a well-ordering W on the universe of all sets that is explicitly definable in the language of set theory.

Now consider some physical quantity Q where we know that Q lies in some interval [x − δ, x + δ], but we have no more precise knowledge. If C is true, let U be the W-smallest non-measurable subset of [x − δ, x + δ].

Assuming that we do have a reasonable epistemic probability for C, here is my example of something that has no reasonable epistemic probability: C is false or Q is a member of U.

2 comments:

John DeRosa said...

What follows from this? Why is it important?

Alexander R Pruss said...

It imposes a limit on some probabilistic theories of epistemic rationality.